| 基于ARMA模型的新疆旅游市场趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏树军,裴青萍.基于ARMA模型的新疆旅游市场趋势预测[J].新疆职业大学学报,2009,17(5):18-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏树军 裴青萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆财经大学,经济学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830012 |
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| 摘 要： | 大多数经济时间序列存在着惯性，或者说具有迟缓性。通过对这种惯性分析，可以由时间序列的当前值对其未来值进行估计。为了更好地预测新疆旅游业未来的发展状况，本文从新疆历年（1979—2007年）的旅游数据出发，将这些数据平稳化，建立自回归移动平均模型（ARAM模型），从中找出新疆旅游业发展的内在规律性，并对未来新疆旅游市场趋势进行了预测，以期为旅游业和相关产业规划与决策提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 旅游业 ARAM模型 平稳性 |
Trend Forecast of Tourist Market in Xinjiang Based on ARMA Model |
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| SU Shu-jun,PEI Qing-ping.Trend Forecast of Tourist Market in Xinjiang Based on ARMA Model[J].Journal of Xinjiang Vocational University,2009,17(5):18-21. |
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| Authors: | SU Shu-jun PEI Qing-ping |
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| Institution: | ( College of Economics, Xinjiang Institution of Finance and Economics, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830012 ) |
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| Abstract: | There is inertia or sluggishness in most economic time series. Through analysis of this inertia, its future value can be estimated with present value of time series. To forecast the development of tourism in Xinjiang in the future better, this paper, according to annual tourism data during 1979-2007, stabilizes these data, establishes ARAM model, finds out the law of tourism in Xinjiang and forecasts the trend of its future development in order to provide a basis for planning and decision making in tourism and relevant industries. |
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| Keywords: | time series tourism ARAM model stability |
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