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| 时序自回归差分方程模型在传染病预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 王积建,李华,韩义秀.时序自回归差分方程模型在传染病预测中的应用[J].浙江工贸职业技术学院学报,2011,11(2):73-78. |
| 作者姓名： | 王积建 李华 韩义秀 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江工贸职业技术学院 人文系 ,浙江 温州,325027 2. 甘肃省兰州市七里河区杨家桥学校,甘肃 兰州,730050 3. 浙江工贸职业技术学院 汽车与机电工程学院,浙江 温州,325027 |
| 摘 要： | 本文通过分析传染病的特性,建立了时序自回归差分方程模型,对SARS传染病的流行规律进行了进一步研究,并讨论了平衡点及其稳定性.仿真结果表明,使用自回归差分方程模型预测传染病的流行趋势,具有精度高、简单易行的特点. |
| 关 键 词： | SARS传染病 微分方程模型 时序自回归差分方程模型 |
Application of Time Sequence Autoregression Difference Equation Model in Infectious Disease Prediction |
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| WANG Ji-jian,LI Hua,HAN Yi-xiu.Application of Time Sequence Autoregression Difference Equation Model in Infectious Disease Prediction[J].Journal of Zhejiang Industry & Trade Polytechnic,2011,11(2):73-78. | |
| Authors: | WANG Ji-jian LI Hua HAN Yi-xiu |
| Institution: | WANG Ji-jian~(1a),LI Hua~2,HAN Yi-xiu~(1b) (1.Zhejiang Industry & Trade Vocational College a.Humanities Department,b.College of Automobile and Electromechanical Engineering,Wenzhou,Zhejiang,325027,2.Yangjiaqiao School of Qilihe District,Lanzhou,Gansu Province,Gansu,730050) |
| Abstract: | Through analyzing the characteristics of infectious diseases,time sequence autoregression difference equation model is established,further research is conducted on the prevalence rule of such infectious disease as SARS,and balance point and its reliability are discussed.The emulation result shows that the prediction of prevalence trend of infectious disease through autoregression difference equation model has the characteristics of high accuracy and simplicity. |
| Keywords: | SARS differential equation model time sequence autoregression difference equation model |
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