| 罕见重大突发事件应急实时决策中的情景演变 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜卉,黄钧.罕见重大突发事件应急实时决策中的情景演变[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2009,23(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜卉 黄钧 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院研究生院工程教育学院,北京,100049 |
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| 摘 要： | 罕见重大突发事件有其独有的特征,针对这类突发事件,传统的"预测-应对"的应急决策范式巳不适用,必须向"情景-应对"的应急决策范式转化.在充分界定罕见重大突发事件应急决策中的情景概念,分析情景演变的概念和内涵后,提出情景演变的网络表达方式,并建立起罕见重大突发事件中情景演变的分析流程.
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| 关 键 词： | 罕见重大突发事件 实时决策 情景演变 |
The Study on the Issues of Scenario Evolvement in Real-time Decision Making of Infrequent Fatal Emergencies |
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| JIANG Hui,HUANG Jun.The Study on the Issues of Scenario Evolvement in Real-time Decision Making of Infrequent Fatal Emergencies[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition),2009,23(1). |
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| Authors: | JIANG Hui HUANG Jun |
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| Institution: | College of Engineering;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;Beijing 100049;China |
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| Abstract: | The characteristic of infrequent fatal emergency is analyzed in this paper.For infrequent fatal emergency,traditional decision-making paradigm of "forecasting-coping with" should be replaced by a new decision-making paradigm of "scenario-coping with".The definition of scenario in infrequent fatal emergency is discussed fully and the concept and the intension of scenario evolvement are analyzed in this paper.Network express mode of scenario evolvement is proposed and the analyzing flow of scenario evolvement... |
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| Keywords: | infrequent fatal emergency real-time decision-making scenario evolvement |
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