| GP模型拟合分析福州市极端气温 |
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| 引用本文： | 金秀玲.GP模型拟合分析福州市极端气温[J].闽江学院学报,2014,35(5):113-118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金秀玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 闽江学院数学系,福建福州,350121 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用极值理论中的广义Pareto （GP）分布,通过对福州地区1953～2013年每日最高气温数据进行分析拟合,得到了福州地区年最高气温的上升趋势,以及极端气温的重现周期和重现水平.表明该非平稳的GP模型符合福州地区极端高温的实际态势.
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| 关 键 词： | 极端气温 广义Pareto分布 平稳时间序列 |
GP model fitting analysis the extreme temperature in Fuzhou city |
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| JIN Xiu-ling.GP model fitting analysis the extreme temperature in Fuzhou city[J].Journal of Minjiang University,2014,35(5):113-118. |
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| Authors: | JIN Xiu-ling |
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| Institution: | JIN Xiu-ling (Department of Mathmatics, Minjiang University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350121, China) |
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| Abstract: | Basing on the data of the maximum daily summer temperature in Fuzhou area from 1953 to 2013, we applied the generalized Pareto （GP） theory to study the trend of summer temperature in Fuzhou region in this paper. The results reached that the change trends of the temperature in Fuzhou region and the trends, return levels and return period of extreme high temperature in the Fuzhou region. It showed that the non stationary GP model fitted the extreme temperature in Fuzhou region. |
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| Keywords: | extreme temperature generalized Pareto distribution stationary time series |
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