| 广东城镇化、农业现代化与工业化的互动影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王伟.广东城镇化、农业现代化与工业化的互动影响[J].湖南城市学院学报,2014(2):10-14. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王伟 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 广东财经大学经济贸易学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 湖南省哲学社会科学基金课题(12YBA052);湖南省高等学校科研研究项目重点课题(12A028) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 运用VAR模型的计量分析方法，对广东省1981-2012年城镇化发展、农业现代化和工业化的数据进行研究，结果表明：广东城镇化、农业现代化与工业化之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系，且城镇化和农业现代化对于工业的促进作用较为显著。对分析结果进行格兰杰因果检验，发现城镇化和农业现代化是工业化的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析的结果表明：城镇化和农业现代化的发展是工业化的重要动力，城镇化对于工业化的促进作用优于农业现代化对于工业化的促进作用。
|
| 关 键 词： | 城镇化 农业现代化 工业化 VAR |
Study on the Relationship between Urbanization,Modernization of Agriculture and Industrialization by VAR model in Guangdong Province |
| |
| WANG Wei.Study on the Relationship between Urbanization,Modernization of Agriculture and Industrialization by VAR model in Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Hunan City Univeristy,2014(2):10-14. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Wei |
| |
| Institution: | WANG Wei;School of Economy and Trade, Guangdong University of Economy & Finance; |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the quantitative analysis method of VAR to explore the relationship between urbanization, modemization of agriculture and industrialization, and the data derive from Guangdong Province in the time of 1981-2012, The co-integration test shows that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization, modernization of agriculture and industrialization. And the urbanization is an more important factor than that of modernization of agriculture. Furtherly, it adopts Use Granger causality test in VAR model and found that urbanization and modernization of agriculture are both the Granger causality of Industrialization, not vice versa. At last, the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were taken and the results show that urbanization, and modemization of agriculture both produces effect on industrialization, furthermore, the urbanization is an more important factor than modernization of agriculture. |
| |
| Keywords: | urbanization modernization of agriculture industrialization VAR model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
