| 基于GM(1,1)模型的毕节地区旅客周转量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李仰征,陈群利.基于GM(1,1)模型的毕节地区旅客周转量预测[J].毕节学院学报,2010,28(8):21-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李仰征 陈群利 |
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| 作者单位： | 毕节学院环境与生命科学系,贵州,毕节,551700 |
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| 基金项目： | 毕节学院科研基金项目"毕节试验区旅客周转量预测及其出行特点变化分析";项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以毕节地区1987-2008年时间序列数据为基础,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2009-2012年旅客周转量的变化情况,为毕节地区旅客市场环境分析和城市发展总体规划提供一定的借鉴。结果表明:对于GM(1,1)模型,较长时间序列数据并不一定能得到满意的结果,数据序列的选取应结合地方社会经济发展状况,尽可能地设计出精度较高的模型来进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色GM(1 1) 毕节地区 旅客周转量 |
Forecast the Total Passenger of Bijie Based on GM (1,1) Model |
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| LI Yang-zheng,CHEN Qun-li.Forecast the Total Passenger of Bijie Based on GM (1,1) Model[J].Journal of Bijie University,2010,28(8):21-25. |
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| Authors: | LI Yang-zheng CHEN Qun-li |
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| Institution: | LI Yang-zheng,CHEN Qun-li(Environment and Life Sciences Department of Bijie University,Bijie,Guizhou 551700,China) |
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| Abstract: | With 1987-2008 data of Bijie prefecture,on the basis of gray GM(1,1) model,this paper predicts the 2009-2012 changes in the passenger.It aims at making reference for the tourist market analysis and urban development of Bijie.The results shows that a longer time-series data does not necessarily get satisfactory results for the GM(1,1) model.As choosing series data,local socio-economic development situation should be considered,and more precise model is necessary to be carried out. |
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| Keywords: | Gray GM(1 1) Bijie Prefecture Total Passenger |
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