| 长江水质污染预测的灰色模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈巧玲,沈晓斌.长江水质污染预测的灰色模型[J].泉州师范学院学报,2005,23(6):21-26,33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈巧玲 沈晓斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建儿童发展职业学院,福建,福州,350025
2. 泉州师范学院,数学系,福建,泉州,362000 |
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| 摘 要： | 水质预测涉及因素众多且机理复杂，而且已知数据偏少，故采用灰色理论中的GM（1，1）模型对长江污染物进行预测，并进行了四种检验，都达到较满意的效果．为了使预测结果更加准确，提出了用GM（1，1）模型群和等维灰数递补动态预测两种方法加以改进，从而避免使用单一的灰色模型容易受到不稳定信息影响的缺陷，使得预测精度更加准确，提高预测结果的可信度．
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 GM（1 1）模型群 等维灰数递补动态预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-8224（2005）06-0021-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 08 21 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-08-21 |
Gray Model of Prediction for the Water Pollution of Chang Jiang River |
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| CHEN Qiao-ling,SHEN Xiao-bin.Gray Model of Prediction for the Water Pollution of Chang Jiang River[J].Journal of Quanzhou Normal College,2005,23(6):21-26,33. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Qiao-ling SHEN Xiao-bin |
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| Institution: | 1. Fujian Vocational College of Children Education,Fuzhou,350025; 2. Departmemt of Mathematics, Quanzhou Normal University,Fujian 362000,China |
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| Abstract: | The prediction for the water pollution concerns many factors and is mechanically complicated.In the light of comparatively inadequate data,GM(1,1) model in the gray(theory) is adopted to predict the pollution in Chang Jiang River.Four kinds of tests are conducted with a satisfactory result. In order to make the prediction more accurate,the paper also adopts the improved GM(1,1) model group and dynamic equal dimensional number progress complement so as to avoid the deficiencies of one-direction gray model,which is easily affected by unstable information.In this way the prediction is more accurate and reliable. |
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| Keywords: | gray theory GM(1 1) model group dynamic equal dimensional gray number progressive complement |
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