T. rex,the Crater of Doom,and the Nature of Scientific Discovery |
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| Authors: | Lawson Anton E |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Biology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1501, USA |
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| Abstract: | Working from the 1970s to the early 1990s, Walter Alvarez and his research teamsought the cause of the mass extinction that claimed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. The present paper discusses thatresearch in terms of eight puzzling observations, eight episodes of hypothetico-predictive reasoning, enumerative induction,and Jung's interrogative theory of scientific discovery. The Alvarez case history paints scientific discovery as a process in whichcausal questions are raised and answered through the creative use of analogical reasoning followed by an equally creative process ofhypothesis testing in which predicted and observed results are compared. According to this account, puzzling observations, causalhypotheses, and imagined tests drive investigations and the search for evidence. Two implications follow. The firstconcerns the education of new scientists and science education researchers and the need to more clearlydifferentiate hypotheses from predictions in the research process. The second concerns standard science classroom instruction that shouldmore frequently engage students in open inquiries that raise causal questions and encourage the generation of alternative causalhypotheses, which can then be explicitly tested in ahypothetico-predictive fashion. |
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| Keywords: | Dinosaur extinction hypothetico-predictive reasoning scientific discovery |
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