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A stochastic approach to the relation between the impact factor and the uncitedness factor
Authors:Quentin L Burrell
Institution:Centre for R&D Monitoring (ECOOM), KU Leuven, Waaistraat 6, Leuven, Belgium
Abstract:Empirical analysis of the relationship between the impact factor – as measured by the average number of citations – and the proportion of uncited material in a collection dates back at least to van Leeuwen and Moed (2005) where graphical presentations revealed striking patterns. Recently Hsu and Huang (2012) have proposed a simple functional relationship. Here it is shown that the general features of these observed regularities are predicted by a well-established informetric model which enables us to derive a theoretical van Leeuwen–Moed lower bound. We also question some of the arguments of Hsu and Huang (2012) and Egghe (2013) while various issues raised by Egghe, 2008, Egghe, 2013 are also addressed.
Keywords:Impact factor  Uncitedness factor  Gamma-Poisson process  Success-breeds-success  van Leeuwen–Moed lower bound
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