| 洛阳市中小学校车需求量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶正梗,吕锋,周福礼,布朝辉.洛阳市中小学校车需求量预测[J].大观周刊,2012(15):58-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶正梗 吕锋 周福礼 布朝辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南科技大学,河南洛阳471003 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过调查洛阳市中小学生上下学各种交通方式所占比率，计算出洛阳市市区校车市场的潜在客流量。根据近几年的潜在客流量，首先采用加权平滑预测模型、灰色系统模型和灰色——马尔柯夫预测模型进行初步预测，然后采用组合预测模型来对未来客流量进行最终预测。根据最终预测结果，计算出洛阳市市区普及校车工程所需要的校车数量。
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| 关 键 词： | 中小学生客流量 加权平滑预测模型 随机灰色系统模型 灰色—马尔柯夫预测模型 组合预测模型 |
Forecasting the demand for the school bus used for the primary and middle school in luoyang |
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| Abstract: | This paper surveys the percentage of any mode of transport to school from Primary and secondary students in Luoyang City and calculates the market potential school bus traffics. According to the potential traffic recent years,this paper made a first prediction for the traffics of the future using the weighted smooth and gray - a preliminary Markov forecasting model ,then made a final prediction through the combination forecasting model. According to the final prediction result,this paper calculated the popularity of school bus needed for the school bus project of Luoyang. |
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| Keywords: | Primary and secondary traffic -weighted smooth model stochastical grey system model Grey - Markov forecasting model Combination forecasting model |
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