| 专利分析作为医药产业技术预见参考点的潜力——以预防艾滋病和其他性传播疾病的杀微生物剂为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 张冬梅,曾忠禄,刘叔文,曾忠铭.专利分析作为医药产业技术预见参考点的潜力——以预防艾滋病和其他性传播疾病的杀微生物剂为例[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(24):83-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张冬梅 曾忠禄 刘叔文 曾忠铭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东药学院;2. 澳门理工学院;3. 南方医科大学药学院;4. 深圳市南山区卫生局; |
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| 基金项目： | 广东高校优秀青年创新人才培育项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 专家的有限理性或认知偏差-主要是参考点效应和证实性偏差，是德尔菲法技术预见准确性和可靠性低的导因。克服德尔菲法的缺陷需要在邀请专家参加技术预见时就提供给专家一个可靠的参考点。提出专利分析具有作为德尔菲法技术预见参考点的潜力，并通过理论论证和实证检验，证明了专利分析能够作为德尔菲法技术预见的参考点。
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| 关 键 词： | 专利分析 技术预见 参考点 有限理性 实证分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-06-04 |
Potential of Patent Analysis in the Pharmaceutical Industry as Technology Foresight Anchor——A Case from Pharmaceutical Industry |
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| Zhang Dongmei,Zeng Zhonglu,Liu Shuwen,Zeng Zhongming.Potential of Patent Analysis in the Pharmaceutical Industry as Technology Foresight Anchor——A Case from Pharmaceutical Industry[J].Library and Information Service,2009,53(24):83-100. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Dongmei Zeng Zhonglu Liu Shuwen Zeng Zhongming |
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| Institution: | 1. Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,;2. Macao Polytechnic Institute,;3. School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Southern Medical University,;4. Nanshan Health Bureau,; |
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| Abstract: | There are two limitations in Delphi technology foresight: one is anchoring effect, the other is confirmatory bias.To overcome the weakness of Delphi, a reliable anchoring approach should be provided to experts before Delphi survey. Patent analysis is proposed as technology foresight anchoring approach in this paper. Through theory analysis and empirical test, patent analysis is proved to be a reliable anchoring approach for experts. |
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| Keywords: | patent analysis technology foresight anchoring bounded-rationality empirical analysis |
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