THE PRESS AND THE POLLS IN GERMANY, 1980-1994 POLL COVERAGE AS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF ELECTION CAMPAIGN REPORTING |
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| Authors: | Brettschneider Frank |
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| Institution: | Frank Brettschneider is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science, Stuttgart University, Germany. His research areas include public opinion, electoral behavior, media effects, and comparative politics. His book Offentliche Meinung und Politik was recently published by the Westdeutscher Verlag. |
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| Abstract: | Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. |
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