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民用飞机隐蔽故障检查间隔决策方法研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《滨州学院学报》2020,(4):21-26
针对民机系统中隐蔽功能装置的维修间隔确定问题,鉴于传统的维修模型方法的弊端,提出一种利用仿真模型进行检查间隔决策的方法。基于最小检测维修和完美故障维修下的维修策略,首先利用蒙特卡罗仿真预测设备的故障发生时间,然后利用离散事件仿真统计维修参数的更新过程,模拟隐蔽故障的检查和维修过程。仿真过程以检查间隔为决策变量,以不可用度和维修费用为决策目标,为安全类和非安全类的隐蔽故障提供决策支持。最后以设备冷却系统备用供气风扇为研究对象进行实例分析,说明了方法的合理性和指导意义。 相似文献
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邢冬菊 《郧阳师范高等专科学校学报》2000,20(6):26-31
投资项目风险的评价是决策正确与否的关键,风险型长期投资风险的计量,可通过对投资项目的盈亏平衡分析来评价项目的风险程度,也可用投资效益标准离差和标准离差率评价投资项目的风险程度。风险型长期投资决策可采用调整贴现率法,调整现金流量法等调整风险因素的影响,以作出正确决策。 相似文献
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张佩雯 《岱宗学刊(泰安教育学院学报)》2003,(3)
旅游经济决策应遵循确立目标、提出备选方案并进行方案评估论证的程序。一般采用系统论证、平衡协调、经济模型、决策树分析等方法进行,以提高决策水平,减少决策风险。 相似文献
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电力营销风险管理系统包括客户风险评价系统和风险管理系统两部分。该系统建设为营销业务工作提供防范风险技术支持,同时给营销风险决策支持和分析预测提供了一个技术先进、数据准确、使用方便的技术平台。 相似文献
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本文针对高校重大事项特征和决策特点,在对高校重大事项稳定风险内涵与特征、生成机制和风险管理过程分析基础上,提出高校重大事项稳定风险的评估框架,根据系统内部相互依赖的输入-输出逻辑关系,分为系统输入、风险辨识、风险预警、风险对策及系统输出等有机联系的五个部分,并从组织模式、文化、决策与执行角度探讨高校重大事项稳定风险评估的支撑条件,为高校重大事项稳定风险评估提供理论基础和科学依据。 相似文献
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电力营销风险管理系统包括客户风险评价系统和风险管理系统两部分。该系统建设为营销业务工作提供防范风险技术支持，同时给营销风险决策支持和分析预测提供了一个技术先进、数据准确、使用方便的技术平台。 相似文献
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任何一个行业、任何一个企业都会存在着一定的风险,无论是哪个企业、哪个行业都离不开风险管理.管理其实就是一种决策,是管理人员对事件方案作出选择,在风险管理中,往往会涉及到系统决策理论.系统决策理论主要是指通过计算技术、定量分析技术对决策进行了理性地、程序化地、多因素分析的决策方案.本文主要通过对系统决策理论和风险管理的概述,从而分析了系统决策理论在风险管理中的应用. 相似文献
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基于概率论的风险型决策及应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
彭玉忠 《西安文理学院学报》2009,12(2):48-52
运用概率论处理运筹学中的风险型决策问题,得到一些具有实际意义的结果：运用状态概率和方案的期望值确立风险型决策的指导原则;运用树型图直观表示风险型决策方案的形成过程;以转移概率为特征值对风险型决策方案进行稳定性分析;运用Bayes概率计算公式对决策方案进行前、后验分析和调整． 相似文献
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The lifeti me maintenance of a bridge can comprise amuch greater portion of the total lifeti me cost than theoriginal cost of construction because of deterioration.An opti mal maintenance programis the key to makingappropriate decisions to mini mize cost and maintain anappropriate level of safety.Life-cycle cost is a usefulconcept in reducing the overall cost and achieving anappropriate maintenance plan[1,2].It is difficult tomake a reliable esti mate of thelifeti me costs whenthefuture of the… 相似文献
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When children come to the attention of the child welfare system, they become involved in a decision-making process in which decisions are made that have a significant effect on their future and well-being. The decision to remove children from their families is particularly complex; yet surprisingly little is understood about this decision-making process. This paper presents the results of a study to develop an instrument to explore, at the caseworker level, the context of the removal decision, with the objective of understanding the influence of the individual and organizational factors on this decision, drawing from the Decision Making Ecology as the underlying rationale for obtaining the measures. The instrument was based on the development of decision-making scales used in prior decision-making studies and administered to child protection caseworkers in several states. Analyses included reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the resulting scales. For one scale regarding removal decisions, a principal components analysis resulted in the extraction of two components, jointly identified as caseworkers’ decision-making orientation, described as (1) an internal reference to decision-making and (2) an external reference to decision-making. Reliability analyses demonstrated acceptable to high internal consistency for 9 of the 11 scales. Full details of the reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the seven scales are discussed, along with implications for practice and the utility of this instrument to support the understanding of decision-making in child welfare. 相似文献
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根据港口集装箱码头装卸模型的控制要求,设计出了一种基于PLC的下位机控制系统。本控制系统与上位机PC通信,完成上位机对进出口装卸船模型的运行操作与监控。软件采用选择性分支流程编程使下位机对进出口装卸船和门座吊装卸船的控制相互独立。在实际应用中取得了很好的效果。 相似文献
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健全完善的政府决策机制是政府正确科学决策的重要制度保障。创新政府决策机制,建立健全新型的政府决策机制,是新形势下腐败治理的客观需要。在政府决策机制创新的前提下,坚持公平正义、民主科学、依法决策可以有效规避腐败风险,遏制腐败的发生和蔓延。关注和探讨政府决策机制创新视阈下的腐败治理问题,对于拓宽腐败治理视域,创新腐败治理方法,塑造全心全意为人民服务的人民公仆形象,以及建立人民群众信得过的满意政府均具有重要意义。 相似文献
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本文通过对陕西省各高校2014年本科教学质量报告中的数据进行提取、归类和分析,且利用误差分析法和决策模型对其进行研究与讨论,得到客观的决策结论;再根据专家调查报告得出相应的主观决策结果,同时该结果还体现了专家的认知经验和权威性;最后根据主、客观的决策结果运用决策模型得出综合决策结论。该结论不仅能比较好地体现各学校的本科教学质量,也能对未来的持续发展提供了一个可行的方案。 相似文献
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For river basin management, the reliability of the rating curves mainly depends on the accuracy and time period of the observed discharge and water level data. In the Elbe decision support system （DSS）, the rating curves are combined with the HEC-6 model to investigate the effects of river engineering measures on the Elbe River system. In such situations, the uncertainty originating from the HEC-6 model is of significant importance for the reliability of the rating curves and the corresponding DSS results. This paper proposes a two-step approach to analyze the uncertainty in the rating curves and propagate it into the Elbe DSS： analytic method and Latin Hypercube simulation. Via this approach the uncertainty and sensitivity of model outputs to input parameters are successfully investigated. The results show that the proposed approach is very efficient in investigating the effect of uncertainty and can play an important role in improving decision-making under uncertainty. 相似文献
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OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the level of inter-rater reliability of the Illinois Structured Decision Support Protocol by examining the level of Child Protective Services (CPS) caseworkers' agreement regarding state interventions. The Protocol was designed to guide CPS workers to consistent decisions related to the level of state intervention in child maltreatment cases. METHOD: Forty-one workers recruited from three CPS field offices in Illinois participated in this study by assessing three cases using the Illinois Structured Decision Support Protocol. The three cases were developed based on actual cases investigated by the agency. The kappa statistic was used to calculate the level of workers' agreement. RESULTS: The result showed a weak reliability (kappa=.29). Further analysis showed that workers identified a wide range of risk factors and differing levels of intervention for each identified risk factor even among the workers who made the same final decisions. CONCLUSIONS: Decision support protocols are developed to provide systematic structures for workers' decision-making. However, this study suggested that workers demonstrated a low level of agreement on such a protocol. Several suggestions for developing more reliable computerized protocols include: more specified inquiries with criteria to assess the range of risk for a factor, consideration of interactions among risk factors, assessment of family strengths, and having the final decision made by a computerized program. 相似文献
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訾玉梅 《临沂师范学院学报》2006,28(3):32-36
综合评价法在房地产投资决策中得到越来越广泛的应用．它是一种有效的定性分析与定量分析相结合的多目标决策方法．对于房产置业投资而言,其评价决策是一个多目标、多层次、结构复杂和因素众多的大系统．在对房产置业投资决策影响因素进行分析的基础上,建立了房产置业投资决策的层次结构模型,并运用综合评价法进行房产置业投资决策分析,从而给出最优决策． 相似文献
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简要介绍了门机的工作流程和其变频系统的主要设备配置,交待了变频调速系统的基本工作原理. 相似文献