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OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two alternate forms of Family Connections (FC), a child neglect prevention program, in relation to changes in risk and protective factors and improvements in child safety and behavioral outcomes. METHODS: In the original FC study, a sample of 154 families (473 children) in a poor, urban neighborhood, who met risk criteria for child neglect, were randomly assigned to receive either a 3- or 9-month intervention. CPS reports and self-report and observational data on risk and protective factors, safety, and behavioral outcomes were collected prior to, at the end of, and 6-months post intervention. The current study compared the costs of delivering the 3- or 9-month intervention in relation to reported improvements in risk and protective factors, safety, and behavioral outcomes for each group. RESULTS: The 3-month intervention was more cost effective than the 9-month intervention in relation to positive changes in risk and protective factors and child safety. However, cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that the 9-month intervention was more cost effective (CE ratio=$276) than the 3-month intervention (CE ratio=$337) in relation to improved unit changes in the child's behavior between baseline and 6 months after service closure. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully explored the cost-effectiveness of the FC intervention in relation to its intended outcomes. More extensive cost analyses are currently being conducted in the replication of this program in multiple jurisdictions across the United States. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Practitioners in community-based programs must make difficult decisions about the optimal length of time to serve children and families. Prevention programs may be more competitive for funding when they have demonstrated cost-effectiveness. Study results indicated that a 3-month intervention was more cost effective than a 9-month intervention in enhancing protective factors and reducing the risk of child neglect; 9-month intervention was more cost effective than 3-month intervention in reducing problematic child behavior. Further research is needed before practitioners should consider these findings in relation to their own decisions about the timing of service closures. 相似文献
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依据有关资料后 ,对作为美国最重要盟国之一的土耳其在“9· 1 1”事件后所采取的反恐措施和进行的反恐斗争的背景和应对之策进行了具体分析 相似文献
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杨烨 《华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2003,35(4):28-33,39
东扩后可能出现的大规模移民浪潮,有可能导致扩大后的欧盟东部边界出现一种来自“微观安全”方面的威胁,即与过境移民有着紧密联系的非法移民和跨国界犯罪活动。“9．1l”恐怖主义事件使“微观安全”问题在欧洲更为凸显,使之成为欧盟东扩进程中一种潜在的忧虑,但是这并不会阻碍欧盟东扩的步伐。欧盟成员国为之采取的种种应对措施,例如加强边界政策和联手打击非法移民的一系列举措,将使欧盟东扩的成本有所增加。 相似文献
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三国时期,战乱频繁,关系复杂。魏、蜀、吴三方势力在使用战争的手段解决问题的同时,还采用了恐怖手段如刺杀、劫质等打击对方,达到某种政治目的。曹魏势力最强,成为恐怖袭击的主要目标,深受其害,但也制造了一些恐怖活动。曹魏针对当时所出现的恐怖行为,制定了打击恐怖活动的法律,采取了一些行之有效的防卫措施。 相似文献
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恐怖袭击不但会造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,还会造成群众恐慌,对社会稳定有很大影响。旨在从数据分析角度,依据相关数据对恐怖袭击中蕴藏的信息加以分析,为防恐反恐提供有用信息。针对基于危害的恐怖袭击事件分级,根据GTD上1998-2017年数据信息进行数据提取,考虑到很多变量大面积缺失数据,首先对这些变量的重要性作简易评估并进行删减,然后对数据进行清洗和补充,最后根据特征提取和降维后的数据,分出事件对应的恐怖袭击级别。结果表明,深度学习中的深度置信网络（DBN）可以用于提取和减少预处理数据,且DBN可自动实现上述功能,无需太多人为干预。 相似文献
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The theory rhetoric situation put forward by Bitzer is applied to the analysis of President Bush’s address on September 11. Such these essential elements as the exigence, audience and constraints will be illustrated to reveal the cultural and religious roots behind the September 11 terrorist attack. 相似文献
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自1986年贝克首次使用“风险社会”一词来描述当今充满风险的后工业社会之后,疯牛病、“9.11”恐怖袭击、SARS流行、禽流感等一系列现代危机使人们越来越深刻地意识到各种潜在的风险因素正在日益侵蚀我们的安全。风险社会理论已成为西方学者研究的焦点。贝克、吉登斯、拉什以及卢曼等是其中的典型代表,他们各自从不同的角度阐释了风险社会理论。 相似文献
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《Journal of research on educational effectiveness》2013,6(1):30-53
Abstract We review the value of cost-effectiveness analysis for evaluation and decision making with respect to educational programs and discuss its application to early reading interventions. We describe the conditions for a rigorous cost-effectiveness analysis and illustrate the challenges of applying the method in practice, providing examples of programs for which we have estimated costs, but find effectiveness data lacking in comparability. We provide a demonstration of how cost-effectiveness analysis can be applied to two early reading programs: the Wilson Reading System and Corrective Reading. We use existing effectiveness data from an experimental evaluation in which the programs were implemented under similar conditions and the use of common outcomes measures for both programs yielded data that are comparable. We combine these data with cost data we collected using the ingredients method to calculate cost-effectiveness ratios for the alphabetics domain. A complete picture of the relative cost-effectiveness of each program could be provided if effectiveness metrics were available for fluency, vocabulary, and comprehension. We highlight the obstacles to applying cost-effectiveness analysis more frequently and recommend strategies for improving the availability of the requisite data. 相似文献
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乔宗楼 《新乡师范高等专科学校学报》2004,18(4):49-51
严密恐怖活动犯罪的刑事法网,将打击恐怖活动犯罪纳入法治轨道,是打击恐怖活动犯罪的基本手段。为此,国际社会制定了一系列反恐怖主义的国际公约,大多国家在本国国内法中也明确设置了惩治恐怖活动犯罪的条款,我国刑法同样反映了惩治恐怖活动的法律决心。针对恐怖活动犯罪的特殊危害性,我国还应完善对恐怖活动犯罪的刑罚制度,以充分发挥刑罚惩治恐怖活动犯罪的功能。 相似文献
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“9·11事件”后 ,北约迅速做出了反应 ,首次援引《华盛顿条约》第五款 ,在美国部署空中预警系统帮助美国防卫领空 ,向东地中海地区派遣海上力量。同时 ,为了有效地打击恐怖主义 ,北约还在 2 0 0 2年北约布拉格峰会上决定对北约进行改革并改组。北约也加强了与其他国际组织和包括俄罗斯在内的其他国家的合作关系 相似文献
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The Dyslexia Pilot Project provided funding to school districts to implement a multitiered system of support (MTSS) framework for the prevention, early identification, and early intervention of reading difficulties. This article describes the evaluation of the multiyear Dyslexia Pilot Project for students in kindergarten through Grade 2. The evaluation extended a conceptual model for evaluating the systems effects of an MTSS for reading by including a cost-effectiveness analysis. The results indicate that mean rates of improvement on Dynamic Indicators for Basic Early Literacy Skills Next curriculum-based measures for students in participating schools exceeded the expected rates of improvement based on benchmark norms. This reduction in risk precluded the need for more intensive, individualized, and costly interventions and specialized educational services. Implications of the findings and future directions are discussed. 相似文献
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Stuart S. Yeh 《Educational Research Review》2009,4(1):7-15
The cost-effectiveness of class size reduction (CSR) was compared with the cost-effectiveness of rapid formative assessment, a promising alternative for raising student achievement. Drawing upon existing meta-analyses of the effects of student-teacher ratio, evaluations of CSR in Tennessee, California, and Wisconsin, and RAND cost estimates, CSR was found to be 124 times less cost effective than the implementation of systems that rapidly assess student progress in math and reading two to five times per week. Analysis of the results from California and Wisconsin suggest that the relative effectiveness of rapid formative assessment may be substantially underestimated. Further research regarding class size reduction is unlikely to be fruitful, and attention should be turned to rapid formative assessment and other more promising alternatives. 相似文献
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根据 Ed和 Ie动力系统的分形与混沌内在属性——短期演化行为的可预测性和长期演化行为的概率特征 ,分别探讨其长短期行为演化规律 .根据短期行为的预测结果 ,探讨了实际工程结构中的主被动抗震参数控制、在役维护的确定以及系统输入能量优化等问题 ;根据长期行为的概率预测结果 ,对实际工程结构中的抗震设计概率、在役维护概率、地震危险性与地震危害性进行了分析 ,为抗震理论和分析方法以及控震减震规律的实际应用提供了一定的参考价值 相似文献
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颜剑英 《河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2006,33(4):44-47
“9.11”事件之后,美国加大了向第三世界国家推行民主自由价值的力度。布什政府借“反恐”之机,向第三世界国家特别是所谓的“流氓国家”与“失败国家”实施“民主改造”战略,不但采取政治、经济、军事等各种手段对这些国家进行“政权变更”,而且企图主导它们的“国家建设”进程。布什政府的“民主改造”战略本质上是为美国霸权服务的,必将遭到第三世界国家的强烈抵制,最终难逃失败的命运。 相似文献
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吴波吴兵兵 《福建工程学院学报》2021,(4):322-329
地铁车站出入口通道暗挖施工具有很高的风险,为确保此类工程安全施工及量化评价施工可靠性,以南昌地铁3号线通道暗挖工程为依托,采用ABAQUS软件建立三维数值分析模型分别模拟上下台阶法施工和交叉中隔壁法施工。数值模拟结果表明,仅交叉中隔壁法能够满足安全施工和有效控制地层沉降的要求。针对交叉中隔壁法施工,采用有限元强度折减法计算得到无风险因素作用和风险因素最不利组合作用下的安全系数,由点估计法计算通道暗挖施工可靠度。研究结果表明:无风险因素作用时,通道暗挖施工失效概率仅为0.17%,当通道左上导洞开挖遭遇极端降雨天气时,失效概率达到99.7%。强降雨导致通道上覆土体强度降低,此时必须采取加固措施,否则通道施工安全和沉降控制将大概率无法满足要求。通道暗挖施工期间应高度重视监控量测工作,风险因素作用下通道围岩有显著的特征点位移变化,是一个渐进的过程,及时分析监测数据和采取相应技术手段,可避免施工安全风险的发生。 相似文献
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A key challenge facing child protective services (CPS) is identifying children who are at greatest risk of future maltreatment. This analysis examined a cohort of children with a first report to CPS during infancy, a vulnerable population at high risk of future CPS reports. Birth records of all infants born in California in 2006 were linked to CPS records; 23,871 infants remaining in the home following an initial report were followed for 5 years to determine if another maltreatment report occurred. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify subpopulations of infants based on varying risks of re-report. LCA model fit was examined using the Bayesian information criterion, a likelihood ratio test, and entropy. Statistical indicators and interpretability suggested the four-class model best fit the data. A second LCA included infant re-report as a distal outcome to examine the association between class membership and the likelihood of re-report. In Class 1 and Class 2 (lowest risk), the probability of a re-report was 44%; in contrast, the probability in Class 4 (highest risk) was 78%. Two birth characteristics clustered in the medium- and highest-risk classes: lack of established paternity and delayed or absent prenatal care. Two risk factors from the initial report of maltreatment emerged as predictors of re-report in the highest-risk class: an initial allegation of neglect and a family history of CPS involvement involving older siblings. Findings suggest that statistical techniques can be used to identify families with a heightened risk of experiencing later CPS contact. 相似文献
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作业成本管理的核心是作业成本分析，作业成本分析的主要目的是通过分析找出降低成本的关键点。作业成本管理通常用作业消除、作业选择、作业减低、作业分享等方式降低成本。作业成本管理的主要目标：一是尽量通过作业价值目标为顾客提供更多的价值，二是从为顾客提供的价值中获得更多的利润。 相似文献
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2006年世界恐怖活动状况述评 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
2006年是有可靠统计数据以来恐怖事件最多、恐怖伤亡最严重的一年.在地缘上,从中东、南亚到东南亚的弧形地带是世界恐怖活动的主要地区;在手段上,爆炸和袭击是恐怖活动的主要形式,但爆炸的比例有所下降,袭击的比例有所上升;在目标上,警察、平民和政府是2006年恐怖活动的首选.同时,世界恐怖主义在思想动机上的全球化与恐怖分子来源和恐怖活动的国内化、本土化交织在一起,使得国际反恐怖阵营面临更加严重的困难. 相似文献
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祁红光 《沙洋师范高等专科学校学报》2005,6(5):28-30
经济预测是企业改善经营管理，提高经济效益的重要手段．科学的决策能达到以最小的成本获得最大的安全保障目标而运用概率统计原理可解决经济预测和风险决策中的一些问题． 相似文献