What Are the New Implications of Chaos for Unpredictability?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Werndl  Charlotte 《The British journal for the philosophy of science》2009,60(1):195-220

From the beginning of chaos research until today, the unpredictabilityof chaos has been a central theme. It is widely believed andclaimed by philosophers, mathematicians and physicists alikethat chaos has a new implication for unpredictability, meaningthat chaotic systems are unpredictable in a way that other deterministicsystems are not. Hence, one might expect that the question ‘Whatare the new implications of chaos for unpredictability?’has already been answered in a satisfactory way. However, thisis not the case. I will critically evaluate the existing answersand argue that they do not fit the bill. Then I will approachthis question by showing that chaos can be defined via mixing,which has never before been explicitly argued for. Based onthis insight, I will propose that the sought-after new implicationof chaos for unpredictability is the following: for predictingany event, all sufficiently past events are approximately probabilisticallyirrelevant.

1. Introduction
2. Dynamical Systems and Unpredictability

   2.1 Dynamical systems

   2.2 Natural invariant measures

   2.3Unpredictability

3. Chaos

   3.1 Defining chaos

   3.2 Definingchaos via mixing

4. Criticism of Answers in the Literature

   4.1 Asymptotic unpredictability?

   4.2 Unpredictability dueto rapid or exponential divergence?

   4.3 Macro-predictabilityand Micro-unpredictability?

5. A General New Implication ofChaos for Unpredictability

   5.1Approximate probabilistic irrelevance

   5.2 Sufficiently pastevents are approximately probabilisticallyirrelevant for predictions

6. Conclusion

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