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| 1951年至2010年北京市降水和气温的变化特征 | |
| 引用本文： | 朱龙腾,陈远生,燕然然,沈恬,蒋蕾,王瑛.1951年至2010年北京市降水和气温的变化特征[J].资源科学,2012,34(7):1287-1297. |
| 作者姓名： | 朱龙腾 陈远生 燕然然 沈恬 蒋蕾 王瑛 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 3. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,武汉430077 |
| 基金项目： | 北京市水务局节水科研基金:“北京市部分行业节水评价指标的研究和应用”(编号:YOM00710AL). |
| 摘 要： | 根据北京市1951年-2010年的降水和气温数据资料,综合运用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数法、GM（1,1）模型等方法,从不同时间尺度和层面上分析北京市降水和气温变化的规律以及未来的趋势特征。结果表明：北京市降水的72.5%集中在夏季,7月份的降水最多,12月份最少;极端降水指标中的1日最大降水量、极端强降水日数、极端强降水比率、最长连续无降水天数呈不同程度的递减趋势,零降水日数以2d/10a的速率递增;北京市历年的降水量以44.3mm/10a的速率递减,1994年为降水的突变年份,未来的降水整体上呈增加趋势,北京市下一次旱灾大致指向2028年-2029年左右;北京市历年的平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温呈不同程度的增加趋势,平均最低气温的增加趋势最为显著,平均气温和平均最低气温的突变年份都是1989年,而平均最高气温的突变年份为1993年-1994年和1996年,三者未来整体上都呈增加趋势,而平均最低气温的增加趋势最为显著。 |
| 关 键 词： | 降水 气温 Mann-Kendall检验 Hurst指数 GM(1 1)模型 北京市 |
Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Beijing City During 1951-2010 |
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| ZHU Longteng,CHEN Yuansheng,YAN Ranran,SHEN Tian,JIANG Lei and WANG Ying.Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Beijing City During 1951-2010[J].Resources Science,2012,34(7):1287-1297. | |
| Authors: | ZHU Longteng CHEN Yuansheng YAN Ranran SHEN Tian JIANG Lei and WANG Ying |
| Institution: | Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
| Abstract: | With data of precipitation and temperature of Beijing city during 1951-2010, this paper has analyzed and researched their regular rules and future trend from different time scales and levels. Several comprehensive methods have been applied, such as sliding average method, Mann-Kendall test method, Hurst index method, GM(1,1)model and so on. The main results of this research are as follows: the average precipitation of Beijing city is about 588.1mm in the past 60 years; the percent of precipitation concentrated in summer is about 72.5% in Beijing city, the month with the most precipitation is July and the least is December; among the extreme precipitation index, one-day maximum precipitation, extreme rainfall days, extreme rainfall ratio and the longest continuous days without precipitation present diminishing trend with different degrees, while the days without precipitation present increasing trend with a ratio of 2d/10a; the precipitation of Beijing has been reducing by 44.3mm/10a over the years, and the year of mutation of precipitation is 1994, the precipitation of which is 813.2mm; the hurst index of Beijing is less than 0.5, so the future precipitation of Beijing will present a trend of increase on the whole, meanwhile, the next drought year is pointed to 2028-2029; the average temperature, average highest temperature and average lowest temperature of Beijing have risen with different degrees over the years, the amplitude of the average highest temperature is the least while the increasing trend of average lowest temperature is most significant with an increasing ratio of about 0.5 ℃ /10a; the mutation year of average temperature and average lowest temperature is 1989, and that of average highest temperature is 1993-1994 and 1996. All these three temperatures will rise in the future, and the increasing trend of average lowest temperature is the most obvious. The above research results can provide scientific and theoretic basis for the future deep research of Beijing city and other regions. It also benefits for the management of urban water resources and climate warming. |
| Keywords: | Precipitation Temperature Mann-Kendall test Hurst index GM(1 1)model Beijing city |
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