| 中国获取海外石油资源的战略博弈 |
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| 引用本文： | 张红兵,和金生,刘晓峰.中国获取海外石油资源的战略博弈[J].资源科学,2008,30(3):330-335. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张红兵 和金生 刘晓峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学管理学院,天津,300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国石油天然气集团公司科研课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 在经济全球化的今天，石油作为具有战略意义的资源对于国家经济发展和安全起着举足轻重的作用，为保障我国石油的稳定供给，国家出台了一系列政策鼓励企业“走出去”获取海外的石油资源，在这种形势下，为获取稀缺的石油资源，我国不可避免的与各利益相关国展开复杂的战略博弈。因此，作为石油输入大国的中国，如何选择正确的能源战略进行博弈成为一个亟代解决的课题。本文于此提出了一种基于AHP的博弈模型，为中国获取海外石油资源的战略博弈提供一种全新的解决思路。接着，本文以近年来愈演愈烈的中国（石油输入国）、俄罗斯（石油输出国）双方的石油战略博弈作为实际案例，构建出中国的石油获取能力与俄罗斯利益最大化能力的指标体系；然后详细的分析了中国与俄罗斯的战略博弈过程；最终得出博弈结果：中、俄双方只有以”大合作小竞争”的战略思想作为理性的选择，方能使博弈的双方同时达到利益的最大化目的。同时，文章在最后对博弈模型尚需研究和完善的地方进行了相应探讨。
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| 关 键 词： | 战略 博弈 AHP 石油 中国 海外石油资源 战略博弈 Analytic Hierarchy Process based Resources Petroleum Game 完善 研究 利益最大化 的选择 为理性 战略思想 竞争 大合作 结果 博弈过程 分析 指标体系 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2008）03-0330-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-07-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-11-17 |
The Strategy Game for Obtaining Oversea Petroleum Resources to China based on Analytic Hierarchy Process |
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| ZHANG Hong-bing,HE Jin-sheng and LIU Xiao-feng.The Strategy Game for Obtaining Oversea Petroleum Resources to China based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Resources Science,2008,30(3):330-335. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Hong-bing HE Jin-sheng and LIU Xiao-feng |
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| Abstract: | As a strategic resource for national economic development and security, oil plays a decisive role in today's global economy. China also have drawn up the corresponding policy to go abroad to obtain the oversea petroleum resource in order to ensure the steady oil supply, it is inevitable for China to game with the correlative nations in such situation at the same time. China, as an oil import nation, how to choose the right oil strategy to game with other correlative nations is becoming one of the urgent tasks. Based on the principle of AHP, this paper put forward a kind of strategy game model which provides a scientific decision support for the suitable strategy choice of the process that China obtains the oversea petroleum resources. In recent years, the oil strategy game between China and Russia is becoming more and more fierce, therefore, the paper chooses it as a practical case to analyze in detail. Firstly, the paper collects the key factors which affect the oil strategy choice, and constructs the index system about the oil obtaining ability of China and the maximized utility ability of Russia according to the strategy game model. Secondly, the paper analyzes the strategy game process between China and Russia based on the strategy game model. Finally, the result of the strategy game indicates that both of China and Russia will be able to achieve the maximized utility only through the rational strategic decision, which is attached more importance to cooperation and less competition for the petroleum resource. In conclusion, the game model constructed by this paper can resolve the present issue of strategy choice in quantitative, such as the issue of choosing suitable oil strategy to game between China and Japan, and so on. Meanwhile, the strategy game model still have some problems need to be solved, For example, the information which is grasped by each of participator is not equal, it has three or more partners to take part in the game, and etc. so, these problems point out new direction of the research about the strategy game model in the next stage. |
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| Keywords: | Strategy Game AHP Oil |
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