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1.
Kepplinger Hans Mathias; Donsbach Wolfgang; Brosius Hans-Bernd; Staab Joachim Friedrich 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1989,1(4):326-342
This study investigates the relationship between media coverageof Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinionsof the German general public about the politician between 1975and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments aboutHelmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics werecoded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representativesurveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations ofthe politician. The two time series were compared by means ofcross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examinedwith aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attentionwas paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office aschancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases,the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precedesimilar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lagof about three to six months for the whole period of investigation,and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship.Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel andStern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluationshifts in the national dailies. 相似文献
2.
Does the parliamentary behavior of members of parliament, parliamentaryparties, and government correspond with the public's preferencesregarding political issues? What conditions support the emergenceof congruence between public opinion and public policy? Thesequestions are central concerns of democratic theory. In thispaper, they are investigated empirically for the activitiesin the federal German legislature, the German Bundestag, between1949 and 1990. For this purpose, 94 time series of public opinionpolls have been combined with content analysis of more than3, 000 parliamentary documents (e.g. parliamentary questions,committe reports). If public opinion about a policy matter changes,approximately 60 percent of the respective parliamentary actionsare congruent with the direction of opinion change. The congruencebetween public opinion and public policy is greatest for opinionchanges in a conservative direction when the political statusquo is supported. Even more important than the direction ofopinion change is the public's majority opinion at the timeof parliamentary action. 相似文献
3.
For some time now, theorists and investigators in the fieldof public opinion have discussed how opinion, public and thecombination of the two into a single term should be conceptualized.With regard to the first concept mentioned, the difference betweenattitude and opinion has been a central focus of dispute. Thisarticle demonstrates how a structural equation model, whereopinions are included as dependent variables, and attitudes,among other relevant variables, as explanatory variables, maycontribute to the discussion. Application of such a model, whichmay be considered the reflection of an attitude and opinionsystem, again forces the researcher to conceptualize the publicinvolved. 相似文献
4.
This study content analyzed a leading Korean newspaper to examinethe different framing of presidents Kim Young-sam and Roh Moo-hyun,and to look at whether there was a relationship between mediaframing and public opinion of the two presidents. The news storiesabout the presidents were analyzed in terms of topics, sources,the wording the presidents were referred to, and the contentof presidential quotations. Public opinion was investigatedwith the help of two surveys. Results show that President Rohwas predominantly referred to within a politics frame and hada lower approval among the population, mostly in terms of hisbeing negatively characterized as a politician, while PresidentKim was represented more within a policy frame, and was evaluatedin light of his policies among the public. The study discussesthe significance of examining media framing of a president,and the necessity for further experimental study of the primingeffect of media frames of a president. 相似文献
5.
Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. 相似文献
6.
This article documents public opinion research activities inMexico in the 1940s and the role played by Hungarian professorLászló Radványi, who immigrated to thatcountry at the height of World War II. Our research relies onseveral of Radványi's publications archived in differentcountries, as well as on interviews with family, acquaintances,and experts on the work of his wife, the German poet Anna Seghers.During his years in Mexico, Radványi founded the ScientificInstitute of Mexican Public Opinion, in 1941, and the InternationalJournal of Opinion and Attitude Research, in 1947—a forefatherof today's IJPOR. He was also a founding member of WAPOR. Hisearly "sample surveys" raised important methodological issuesand recorded opinion results that reflect the vibrant timesof war and policy making in a modernizing country. However,Radványi's contribution to the profession has been virtuallyforgotten. Until now, accounts about how public opinion researchbegan in Mexico either ignored Radványi's works or reducedhis ten years of survey research to a single footnote. Thisarticle is an attempt to fill this enormous omission and highlightsome of Radványi's contributions to these early stagesof survey research. 相似文献
7.
Recent research has shown that attitudinal ambivalence has importantimplications on political attitudes and behavior. The conceptholds one of the keys to understanding complicated and seeminglycontradictory opinions of the public. This article examinesambivalence in public opinion regarding democratic reform inHong Kong. Analysis of a representative survey (N = 600) showsthat common citizens indeed have a significant degree of ambivalencetoward the government's political reform bill proposed in 2005.Regarding consequences, objective ambivalence is shown to havegreater predictive power than subjective ambivalence. The formerrelates negatively to attitude extremity and weakens the attitude–behaviorlinkage. However, contrary to the usual finding in the literature,objective ambivalence also relates positively to protest participationintention. The theoretical and social implications of the findingsare discussed. Received for publication June 29, 2007. Accepted for publication October 8, 2008. 相似文献
8.
In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews articles that have recently been publishedin peer-refereed journals and which broadly relate to the fieldof public opinion. The intention is not to give an exhaustiveoverview of a given study but rather to alert our readers tointeresting ideas and research in our field. For this issuethanks are due to Ken’ichi Ikeda (University of Tokyo)for help in compiling the reviews. Arai, Kiichiro (2006). A mechanism of political participation:Experience and evaluation. Review of Electoral Studies, 6, 5–24. This paper examines how citizens are engaged in political activities,with a focus on their experience of political participationand their evaluation of the experience. Using data from theJapanese Election and Democracy Study 2000 survey, an empiricalanalysis shows that people who positively evaluate their experienceof participating in political activity (such as helping election 相似文献
9.
Recent studies have suggested that agenda-setting may influencenot only what we think about, but also what we think. This studyexamines the correlations between the salience of one issue(the federal budget deficit) and public knowledge, opinion,and behavior, using fall 1988 survey data. It finds statisticallysignificant correlations between issue salience and knowledgeabout the deficit issue, strength and direction of opinion regardingone possible solution to the issue, and political behavior relatedto the issue. These correlations remain statistically significantin multiple regression analyses where demographics and mediaexposure and attention measures are controlled simultaneouslyand in hierarchical blocks. Taken together, the findings reportedhere suggest that increased salience of the deficit issue wasaccompanied by increased knowledge of its possible causes andsolutions, stronger opinions, less likelihood of taking a neutralposition, and more likelihood of participating in politics throughsuch behavior as signing petitions, voting, attending meetings,and writing letters. 相似文献
10.
In 1997, the British Crown Colony Hong Kong will become a specialadministrative region of the People's Republic of China (PRC).Very recent public opinion polls show that the majority of thepopulation in Hong Kong does not approve of this agreement negotiatedbetween the Chinese and the British governments. Instead, arelative majority of the respondents would prefer to maintainthe status quo. Moreover, twelve per cent of the populationanticipates today not to be living in Hong Kong in the year1997. This figure corresponded to a net outflow of no less than670,000 people, of whom a great deal will belong to those whocontribute to Hong Kong's business and workforce éliteof today. 相似文献
11.
In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews in a very condensed manner articles which haverecently been published in other journals and which relate tothe field of public opinion research. This section does notaim to give readers a comprehensive insight to particular studies,but rather to alert them to ideas and results that may be linkedto their own work. In order to facilitate orientation to thereader, the reviews are grouped according to the following topics: (1) Politics, Elections and Social Values; (2) Public Opinion on Current Issues; (3) Methodology of Public Opinion Polling; (4) Polls as a Social and Political Factor; (5) Mass Media and Public Opinion. 相似文献
12.
During the rewriting of its program in the early 1980s, theRassemblement pour la République (RPR) carried out anumber of opinion surveys. The person in charge of this wasnot a member of the inner leadership circle; he warned the partyleader, Jacques Chirac, that themes forming a coherent ‘liberal’program for the transformation of the relationship between citizens,state, and the economy, were not popular with public opinion,which remained attached to progressive taxation and a comprehensivesocial welfare system. The party leadership ignored these warnings.Rather than attempting to align their policies with voter aspirations,their principal use of political communications techniques aimedat improving their leader's image. The person in charge of thiswork was a stranger to politics whose understanding of the waycultural or political attitudes are changed led him to interpretvery fatalistically the chances of influencing election outcomesby communications techniques. His methods were treated withfrank skepticism by party communications colleagues, his client'spersonality was particularly unamenable to his efforts, andhis one successful initiative—the rejuvenation of theexecutive committee—was operated at the cost of a rowin the party. In the case of the RPR, opinion research seemsto have played no role at all in an important party policy review,the causes of which should be sought elsewhere. 相似文献
13.
Shapiro Robert Y.; Young John T.; Patterson Kelly D.; Blumenfeld Jill E.; Cifu Douglas A.; Offenhartz Sara M.; Tsekerides Ted E. 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1991,3(4):340-365
In this article the authors argue that studies of the influenceof the mass media on public support for presidential candidatesin primary elections should return to the social pyschologicalmodel of attitude change. This model should take into account,however, that in the real world, unlike laboratory settings,randomization and complete controls of variables are not possible,and rational and strategic choice considerations come into play,along with the cumulative effects of new information on aggregateopinion. The variables found to be relevant to attitude change,especially the characteristics of the communicator and the communication,have not been studied systematically in natural settings. Littleis known about how new information unrelated to electoral ‘momentum’affects the public's evaluations and support for candidates.A fuller explanation is needed of what are complex media influenceson candidate support in primary elections—including especiallythose messages conveyed through the media which tend to be distinctiveand most accessible to memory: information about the viabiltiyof candidates; positive messages and images conveyed directlyfrom the candidates themselves and (to a lesser extent) fromother major party leaders who support or oppose them; and, ofspecial theoretical importance, the ostensibly credible newscommentary about the candidates. 相似文献
14.
The Dynamics of Opinion Formation in Local Popular Referendums: Why the Dutch Always Say No 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
There is growing research on voting behavior in referendums.However, the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendums,referendums initiated by the electorate to approve or rejectdecisions made by representative bodies, has not yet been studied.This is especially unfortunate as voting decisions in popularreferendums differ from those in other referendums in interestingways. Opinion formation can be a very dynamic process in popularreferendums, making the referendum campaign crucial. This paperstudies the dynamics of opinion formation in popular referendumsand relates them to particular characteristics of the campaignsand the issues at hand. Based on the literature, we consideredthe effects of the intensity of the yes and no campaigns, familiaritywith the issue, and partisan cues. Our study uses content analysisdata and data from public opinion surveys dealing with variouspopular referendums held in the Netherlands. The study revealedseveral factors that contributed to the volatility of opinionsin the referendum campaigns: the issue (new and did not fittraditional political schemes), lack of support from societaland community organizations for the position of the local authorities,and low profile campaigns on the part of local authorities.While some of these factors are general and may play a rolein referendums everywhere, some can be considered ‘typicallyDutch’, related to the characteristics of popular referendumsin the Netherlands and the country’s political system. 相似文献
15.
In this section the International Journal of Public OpinionResearch reviews articles that have recently been publishedin peer-refereed journals and which broadly relate to the fieldof public opinion. The intention is not to give an exhaustiveoverview of a given study but rather to alert our readers tointeresting ideas and research in our field.
Blais, André & Gélineau, François (2007). Winning, losing and satisfaction with democracy. Political Studies, 55, 425–441.
Blais and Gélineau use the 1997 Canadian federal electionpanel study to explore the relationship between supporting thewinning side in an election and satisfaction with democracy.While it is well established that winners tend to have higherlevels of satisfaction than losers, less research has been doneto determine whether it is the election result in itself thatcauses this difference in satisfaction. The authors theorizethat in a parliamentary system voters might gain different utilityfrom winning at the local and national levels, and that theirexpectations as well as 相似文献
16.
Public opinion studies have conventionally treated politicalefficacy as a two-dimensional concept involving internal andexternal efficacy. The former refers to people’s beliefsabout their individual abilities to understand politics, andthe latter refers to people’s beliefs about governmentresponsiveness. The present study reexamines and goes beyondthis two-dimensional view. It proposes that collective efficacy,defined as a citizen’s belief in the capabilities of thepublic as a collective actor to achieve social and politicaloutcomes, can be considered as a third dimension of politicalefficacy. Based on this three-dimensional view, the relationshipbetween political efficacy, support for democratization, andpolitical participation in Hong Kong is examined. Analysis ofa representative survey (N = 800) shows that both support fordemocratization and political participation are positively relatedto collective efficacy and negatively related to external efficacy.Internal efficacy, on the other hand, has only a limited relationshipwith the dependent variables, though high levels of internalefficacy are found to be a condition for collective and externalefficacy to exert stronger impact on political attitudes andbehavior. It is argued that two characteristics of the HongKong society—as a transitional society and a collectivistculture—contribute to the significance of collective efficacyin the public opinion process. But the relevance of collectiveefficacy to other contexts is also discussed. 相似文献
17.
本文基于2010-2018年10600起舆情事件,考察了事件本身属性、媒介传播、网民参与及政府干预对网络舆情热度的影响。多元分层回归模型的结果表明:1.环境和文化体育类事件网络舆情热度较高,反腐倡廉类事件网络舆情热度较低;因为大型活动和科技发现引发的舆情事件传播热度较高。2.由传统媒体、网络新闻首次曝光的舆情事件热度较低。3.出现第三方、网络谣言、网络动员的舆情事件热度较高,意见领袖的出现对网络舆情热度没有显著影响;网民舆论倾向性非常正面的舆情事件传播热度较高。4.网络舆情事件中如果国家部委进行了干预,则舆情热度较高;政府干预的时效性越差,网络舆情热度越高;政府采用新闻发布会、社交媒体回应的舆情事件热度较高,利用对外公告或文件回应的舆情事件热度较低;政府干预级数与网络舆情热度正相关。 相似文献
18.
Rusciano Frank Louis; Fiske-Rusciano Roberta 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1990,2(4):305-322
This paper presents a content analysis of the manner in which‘world opinion’ is used in stories and editorialsof two nations' major newspapers. The authors studied the InternationalHerald Tribune and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung for themonths of February, March, and April 1986 for articles whichcontained implicit or explicit references to ‘world opinion’.These refernces were studied using a pre-designed survey instrument,which analyzed several features of the term's usage. Topicsfor discussion included: (1) the various syonyms for world opinion;(2) the agenda for world opinion; (3) the timing of referenceto particular issues on the agenda; (4) the moral and pragmaticcomponents of world opinion; and (5) the link between worldopinion and the ‘international isolation’ of nationsor individuals. The paper concludes by combining the resultsof the study into a preliminary definition of ‘world opinion’,based upon the common usage of this term. The definition comparesthe characteristics of ‘world opinion’ and ‘publicopinion’, and discusses the possible ramifications ofunderstanding the concept in this manner. 相似文献
19.
网络舆情衍进指数构建与实证分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
[目的/意义]提出和构建网络舆情衍进指数，以描述网络舆情演化过程中常衍生出新的子话题的现象，对于舆情预警、预测具有重要的理论及实践意义。[方法/过程]以文本聚类结果和文本聚类有效性为依据，提出网络舆情衍进的判别标准和舆情衍进指数的构建过程，并以"教科书老赖"这一事件作为样本数据进行实证分析。[结果/结论]所构建的舆情衍进速率指数可以用于描述舆情衍进。在突发期阶段话题舆情衍进指数最高，此后逐渐下降，这一阶段的舆情衍进最为剧烈，子话题的出现呈现爆发性增长；舆情衍进指数在舆情蔓延期内出现阶梯式下降，此后保持为负值，舆情的子话题开始逐渐减少，舆情内容本身由发散转为收敛；进入消散期后，子话题数量趋于稳定。作为舆情衍进速率的测度和舆情衍进的判别方式，舆情衍进指数为舆情监管和舆情预警提供了全新的角度。 相似文献
20.
In recent years, a number of new techniques have been developed—includingdeliberative polls and educational surveys—that attemptto gather measures of public opinion that is of higher quality(i.e. better informed or more deliberative) than that recordedin typical mass opinion surveys. This paper addresses severalgeneral sets of questions. What is meant by ‘quality’in public opinion? What criteria can be enumerated by whichthe quality of public opinion can be assessed? In grapplingwith these questions, the paper argues that conceptions of qualityin public opinion are inextricably bound to broader conceptionsof quality in democratic decision making, a complex processinvolving multiple phases and collective participants. In addition,a number of important contradictions and ambiguities underlieconceptions of quality in public opinion. 相似文献