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1.
The relationships between team performance indicators and match outcome have been examined in many team sports, however are limited in Australian Rules football. Using data from the 2013 and 2014 Australian Football League (AFL) regular seasons, this study assessed the ability of commonly reported discrete team performance indicators presented in their relative form (standardised against their opposition for a given match) to explain match outcome (Win/Loss). Logistic regression and decision tree (chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID)) analyses both revealed relative differences between opposing teams for “kicks” and “goal conversion” as the most influential in explaining match outcome, with two models achieving 88.3% and 89.8% classification accuracies, respectively. Models incorporating a smaller performance indicator set displayed a slightly reduced ability to explain match outcome (81.0% and 81.5% for logistic regression and CHAID, respectively). However, both were fit to 2014 data with reduced error in comparison to the full models. Despite performance similarities across the two analysis approaches, the CHAID model revealed multiple winning performance indicator profiles, thereby increasing its comparative feasibility for use in the field. Coaches and analysts may find these results useful in informing strategy and game plan development in Australian Rules football, with the development of team-specific models recommended in future. 相似文献
2.
Sam Robertson Bart Spencer Nicole Back Damian Farrow 《Journal of sports sciences》2019,37(11):1280-1285
Representative learning design provides a framework for the extent to which practice simulates key elements of a performance setting. Improving both the measurement and analysis of representative learning design would allow for the refinement of sports training environments that seek to replicate competition conditions and provide additional context to the evaluation of athlete performance. Using rule induction, this study aimed to develop working models for the determination of high frequency, representative events in Australian Rules football kicking. A sample of 9005 kicks from the 2015 Australian Football League season were categorised and analysed according to the following constraints: type of pressure, kick distance, possession source, time in possession, velocity and kick target. The Apriori algorithm was used to develop two models. The first consisted of 10 rules containing the most commonly occurring constraint sets occurring during the kick in AF, with support values ranging from 0.15 to 0.22. None of the rules contained more than three constraints and confidence values ranged from 0.63 to 0.84. The second model considered ineffective and effective kick outcomes and displayed 70% classification accuracy. This research provides a measurement approach to determine the degree of representativeness of sports practice and is directly applicable to various team sports. 相似文献
3.
Hongyou Liu Will G. Hopkins Miguel-Angel Gómez 《European Journal of Sport Science》2016,16(5):516-525
Identifying match events that are related to match outcome is an important task in football match analysis. Here we have used generalised mixed linear modelling to determine relationships of 16 football match events and 1 contextual variable (game location: home/away) with the match outcome. Statistics of 320 close matches (goal difference ≤ 2) of season 2012–2013 in the Spanish First Division Professional Football League were analysed. Relationships were evaluated with magnitude-based inferences and were expressed as extra matches won or lost per 10 close matches for an increase of two within-team or between-team standard deviations (SD) of the match event (representing effects of changes in team values from match to match and of differences between average team values, respectively). There was a moderate positive within-team effect from shots on target (3.4 extra wins per 10 matches; 99% confidence limits ±1.0), and a small positive within-team effect from total shots (1.7 extra wins; ±1.0). Effects of most other match events were related to ball possession, which had a small negative within-team effect (1.2 extra losses; ±1.0) but a small positive between-team effect (1.7 extra wins; ±1.4). Game location showed a small positive within-team effect (1.9 extra wins; ±0.9). In analyses of nine combinations of team and opposition end-of-season rank (classified as high, medium, low), almost all between-team effects were unclear, while within-team effects varied depending on the strength of team and opposition. Some of these findings will be useful to coaches and performance analysts when planning training sessions and match tactics. 相似文献
4.
The planned peaking for matches or events of perceived greatest priority or difficulty throughout a competitive season is commonplace in high-level team sports. Despite this prevalence in the field, little research exists on the practice. This study aimed to provide a framework for strategic periodisation which team sport organisations can use to evaluate the efficacy of such plans. Data relating to factors potentially influencing the difficulty of matches were obtained for games played in the 2014 Australian Football League season. These included the match location, opposition rank, between-match break and team “form”. Binary logistic regression models were developed to determine the level of association between these factors and match outcome (win/loss). Models were constructed using “fixed” factors available to clubs prior to commencement of the season, and then also “dynamic” factors obtained at monthly intervals throughout the in-season period. The influence of playing away from home on match difficulty became stronger as the season progressed, whilst the opposition rank from the preceding season was the strongest indicator of difficulty across all models. The approaches demonstrated in this paper can be used practically to evaluate both the long- and short-term efficacy of strategic periodisation plans in team sports as well as inform and influence coach programming. 相似文献
5.
Within society, there are many publications regarding expectations of firm performance. These include analysis, industry insiders and ranking service. Within sports, bookmakers provide betting odds that reflect the expected outcome of matches and are determined by several factors. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of expected match outcome (i.e. betting odds) and compare them to those of actual match outcome. Data from the 2010/2011 season of the German Bundesliga (soccer) are made available that are combined with betting odds for each match. Regression results show that several factors, such as difference in standing between team and opponent, difference in competitions played, difference in points earned over the last five matches, differences in standing last season and home advantage significantly influence expected match outcome. On the contrary, actual match outcome is only determined by the latter two factors. 相似文献
6.
Ben Piggott Sean Müller Paola Chivers Carmen Papaluca Gerard Hoyne 《European Journal of Sport Science》2019,19(3):267-286
Sports science research is traditionally monodisciplinary despite calls for an interdisciplinary focus. The primary purpose of this systematic review was to identify studies on talent identification, talent selection and competition performance to determine whether interdisciplinary research is being conducted. Thirty-six studies met the selection criteria. These studies were critiqued relative to sport, skill level, sport science sub-disciplines included, and whether the research was multidisciplinary or interdisciplinary. The secondary purpose of the review was to critique the level of analysis and level of representative task design in performance tests used in the studies. Twenty-five studies were categorised as interdisciplinary, with 11 categorised as multidisciplinary. Thirteen sports were represented with soccer the most frequent followed by field hockey, Australian Rules football, handball and rugby league. Thirty-two studies completed their analysis at a group level and four at an individual level. A total of 337 performance tests were rated for representative task design with 64 categorised as low, 123 as medium and 150 as high. The results pertaining to interdisciplinary studies and individual analyses are discussed in relation to constraints theory, which predicts that interacting variables can explain sport performance. Sports science research is beginning to fulfil the call for interdisciplinary research. Future research, however, needs to consider individual analyses and representative task design of tests to progress sports science knowledge. 相似文献
7.
Using a two-study approach, we examined a methodology for objectively depicting team performance and form in a professional rugby union side. Study 1 developed standardized indicators to examine a team's performance in a single match relative to their previous matches over a domestic season via a performance report and form chart. This resulted in standardized performance indicators that provided instant and coherent feedback on the team's performance relative to previous standards. Study 2 then utilized this methodology to compare a match between two professional sides, played the following season, to assess the extent to which the performance by one team affected that of the other. Comparison of the two teams' performances, for the match they played against each other, identified a drop in relative performance (against previous standards) for both teams on the same performance indicators. This appeared to be due to the match being a close, hard-fought contest particularly in the tackle and around the gain-line. The findings of the two studies suggest an accurate and viable methodology for depicting team performance that is superior to the global measures previously adopted. Presenting teams' current standardized performances (i.e. form) on a single visual scale also has utility for coaches within an applied setting. Future research should further investigate the effect of one team's performance on another through both individual and team outcomes. 相似文献
8.
Given the uncertainty of outcome in sport, predicting the outcome of sporting contests is a major topic in sport sciences. This study examines the accuracy of expert predictions in the German Bundesliga and compares their predictions to those of sports economists. Prior to the start of each season, a set of distinguished experts (head coaches and players) express their subjective evaluations of the teams in school grades. While experts may be driven by irrational sentiments and may therefore systematically over- or underestimate specific teams, sports economists use observable characteristics to predict season outcomes. The latter typically use team wage bills given the positive pay–performance relationship as well as other factors (average team age, tenure, appearances on national team, and attendance). Using data from 15 consecutive Bundesliga seasons, the predictive accuracy of expert evaluations and sports economists is analysed. The results of separate estimations show that relative grade and relative wage bill significantly affect relative points, while age, tenure, appearances, and attendance are insignificant. In a joint model, relative grade and relative wage bill are still statistically significant, suggesting that the two types of predictions are complements rather than substitutes. Consequently, football experts and sports economists seem to rely on completely different sources of information when making their predictions. 相似文献
9.
Wray Vamplew 《国际体育史杂志》2018,35(2-3):141-156
AbstractThis paper will offer an economic history perspective on match-fixing based on economic models which explain corruption as a rational decision-making process in which a potentially corrupt athlete weighs up various probabilities. Examples will be taken from sport worldwide including American college sports, NBA basketball, British horseracing, Australian Rules football, and sumo wrestling in Japan where large databases of actual results over time have allowed possible patterns of match-fixing (as opposed to individual instances) to be identified by the use of probability theory. 相似文献
10.
Science and Gaelic football: a review 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This review focuses on Gaelic football and scientific reports of the characteristics of its players and the demands of the game. Anthropometric characteristics vary according to positional role, but top players display high muscularity and good all-round fitness at the peak of the competitive season. Match analysis indicates that exercise intensity is roughly equivalent to that for professional soccer. Average heart rates are approximately 160 beats x min(-1) during competitive matches, and average oxygen consumption is about 72% of maximum. Metabolic fatigue in active muscles is unlikely. Conventional biomechanical and electromyographic techniques are useful in gaining insight into individual games skills. Inadequate attention has been given to injury prevention and to psychological aspects of the game. Although possessing unique characteristics, Gaelic football has many similarities with other football codes, especially Australian Rules football where the ball is played by both hands and feet and where tackling is permitted. 相似文献
11.
Jeremy P. Alexander Bartholomew Spencer Jocelyn. K. Mara Sam. Robertson 《Journal of sports sciences》2019,37(3):237-243
Using the spatiotemporal characteristics of players, the primary aim of this study was to determine whether differences in collective team behaviour exist in Australian Rules football during different phases of match play. The secondary aim was to determine the extent to which collective team behaviour differed between competing teams and match half. Data was collected via 10 Hz global positioning system devices from a professional club during a 2 × 20 min, 15-v-15-match simulation drill. Five spatiotemporal variables from each team (x centroid, y centroid, length, width, and surface area) were collected and analysed during offensive, defensive, and contested phases. A multivariate analysis of variance comparing phase of match play (offensive, defensive, contested), Team (A & B), and Half (1 & 2) revealed that x-axis centroid and y-axis centroid showed considerable variation during all phases of match play. Length, width, and surface area were typically greater during the offensive phase comparative to defensive and contested phases. Clear differences were observed between teams with large differences recorded for length, width, and surface area during all phases of match play. Spatiotemporal variables that describe collective team behaviour may be used to understand team tactics and styles of play. 相似文献
12.
This review focuses on Gaelic football and scientific reports of the characteristics of its players and the demands of the game. Anthropometric characteristics vary according to positional role, but top players display high muscularity and good all-round fitness at the peak of the competitive season. Match analysis indicates that exercise intensity is roughly equivalent to that for professional soccer. Average heart rates are approximately 160 beats· min-1 during competitive matches, and average oxygen consumption is about 72% of maximum. Metabolic fatigue in active muscles is unlikely. Conventional biomechanical and electromyographic techniques are useful in gaining insight into individual games skills. Inadequate attention has been given to injury prevention and to psychological aspects of the game. Although possessing unique characteristics, Gaelic football has many similarities with other football codes, especially Australian Rules football where the ball is played by both hands and feet and where tackling is permitted. 相似文献
13.
14.
In team sports, tactical periodisation refers to the planned manipulation of training loads with the aim of prioritising athlete readiness for matches of greatest importance. Although monitoring of athletes’ physical condition is often used to inform this planning, the direct influence of external factors on match difficulty has not been well quantified. In this study, a ‘match difficulty index’ (MDI) for use in Super Rugby was developed, based on the influence imparted by five external factors on previous match outcomes. Specifically, information relating to match location, days break between matches, time-zone change and opposition ladder position (both current and previous year) were collected for matches played during the 2011–2013 Super Rugby seasons. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the importance of each of these factors with respect to match outcome (win/loss), with opposition ladder position and match location (home, domestic away or international) exerting the greatest influence on match difficulty. Three separate cross-validated models were constructed, with match outcome classification performance reported as 66.2%, 65.5% and 63.7% respectively. The three MDI models emanating from this study can each be used to inform tactical periodisation program design both prior to and during the regular season. 相似文献
15.
Previous research into sports officiating at the elite level has primarily focused on factors that impact negatively on sports officials, including experiences of abuse, time pressures and fear of failure. However, factors that have positively influenced the development of elite officials have largely been neglected. This is problematic, as a better knowledge about how elite officials progress to top-tier competitions may improve officiating performance and role satisfaction. This study therefore, aims to identify factors that work positively for individuals who seek to reach elite levels of sport officiating. This is important because it can assist our understanding of how to create a positive environment for the development of young officials, thereby helping with role satisfaction, improved chances of retention and, where appropriate, pathways into career development at the elite level of sport. The context for this study is Australia, with a focus on national competitions in basketball, football (soccer) and Australian Rules football as representative samples for referees and umpires. 相似文献
16.
竞技状态是训练学的核心研究概念之一，其会极大地影响运动员竞技表现。竞技表现反映了竞技状态好坏，以往对此内容的研究多集中于优秀运动员个体。为了探讨集体项目中的竞技表现及其影响因素，选择中超联赛作为研究对象。中超联赛是亚洲最好的职业足球联赛之一，代表了中国职业足球的最高水平，受到广泛的关注。通过时间序列分析中的自相关函数和互相关函数对足球比赛表现分析进行实证研究，以2017赛季中国足球超级联赛的240场比赛为样本，探明影响球队竞技状态的表现指标稳定性，并确定对球队战绩影响较大的关键指标。研究结果显示：（1）对联赛排名上游的球队而言，传球成功率、拦截和抢断是较为重要的指标；（2）进球和进攻类指标是强队制胜的关键；（3）联赛排名上游和中游球队比赛表现的整体稳定性要高于下游球队。 相似文献
17.
竞技状态是训练学的核心研究概念之一,其会极大地影响运动员竞技表现。竞技表现反映了竞技状态好坏,以往对此内容的研究多集中于优秀运动员个体。为了探讨集体项目中的竞技表现及其影响因素,选择中超联赛作为研究对象。中超联赛是亚洲最好的职业足球联赛之一,代表了中国职业足球的最高水平,受到广泛的关注。通过时间序列分析中的自相关函数和互相关函数对足球比赛表现分析进行实证研究,以2017赛季中国足球超级联赛的240场比赛为样本,探明影响球队竞技状态的表现指标稳定性,并确定对球队战绩影响较大的关键指标。研究结果显示：（1）对联赛排名上游的球队而言,传球成功率、拦截和抢断是较为重要的指标;（2）进球和进攻类指标是强队制胜的关键;（3）联赛排名上游和中游球队比赛表现的整体稳定性要高于下游球队。 相似文献
18.
Christopher M Young Wei Luo Paul B Gastin Daniel B Dwyer 《Journal of sports sciences》2020,38(6):676-681
ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to assess if tactical and technical performance indicators (PIs) could be used in combination to model match outcomes in Australian Football (AF). A database of 101 technical PIs and 14 tactical PIs from every match in the 2009–2016 Australian Football League (AFL) seasons was merged. Two outcome measures Win-loss and Score margin were used as dependent variables. The top 45 ranked technical and tactical PIs from a feature selection process were used to model match outcome using decision tree and Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). Of the top 45 selected features, this included seven tactical PIs. The Win-loss-based Decision tree model achieved a classification accuracy of 89.0% and GLM 93.2%. A Score margin-based GLM achieved a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 6.9 points. A combined approach to the classification of match outcomes provided no improvement in model accuracy compared with previous literature. However, this study has established the relative importance of technical and tactical measures of performance in relation to successful team performance in AF. 相似文献
19.
Abstract Using a two-study approach, we examined a methodology for objectively depicting team performance and form in a professional rugby union side. Study 1 developed standardized indicators to examine a team's performance in a single match relative to their previous matches over a domestic season via a performance report and form chart. This resulted in standardized performance indicators that provided instant and coherent feedback on the team's performance relative to previous standards. Study 2 then utilized this methodology to compare a match between two professional sides, played the following season, to assess the extent to which the performance by one team affected that of the other. Comparison of the two teams' performances, for the match they played against each other, identified a drop in relative performance (against previous standards) for both teams on the same performance indicators. This appeared to be due to the match being a close, hard-fought contest particularly in the tackle and around the gain-line. The findings of the two studies suggest an accurate and viable methodology for depicting team performance that is superior to the global measures previously adopted. Presenting teams' current standardized performances (i.e. form) on a single visual scale also has utility for coaches within an applied setting. Future research should further investigate the effect of one team's performance on another through both individual and team outcomes. 相似文献
20.
Arne Güllich 《Journal of sports sciences》2019,37(12):1347-1355
The study examined the “micro-structure” of football practice and the “macro-structure” of participation history of female professional football players. Participants were 29 German 1st league (Bundesliga) players, 14 of whom played on the senior national team (Olympic Champion in 2016). A questionnaire recorded the players’ positions, proportions of physical conditioning, drill-type skill exercises and playing forms within coach-led football practice, and the volume of coach-led practice and peer-led play, in both football and other sports, from childhood to adulthood. Analyses revealed that most athletes played various attacker and defender positions during development. National team players differed from their Bundesliga peers by less physical conditioning and greater proportions of playing forms within football practice. National team players also accumulated less total football practice until age 18 years, but more peer-led football and coach-led practice in other sports compared to their Bundesliga counterparts. Based on these variables, a binary logistic regression classified 93% of the national team and Bundesliga players correctly. Conclusion: A combination of long-term coach-led football practice involving a relatively large proportion of playing forms with considerable childhood/adolescent peer-led football play and coach-led practice in other sports may have facilitated adult performance among German female world-class football players. 相似文献