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1.
当前,体育学界的定量研究多数处于统计相关性的描述阶段,基于因果推断的解释能力不足,而在其他学科(尤其经济学和计算机学)中,因果推断已经成为“新的学科前沿”。2020年6月,英国学者Guan Jing等在利物浦大学经济论坛上报告了1篇文章,主要探讨运动与健康的双向因果关系。他们指出,当前体育学界对于因果推断的运用主要存在2个问题:①忽略内生性;②武断假设因果关系的单一路径,如只指出运动促进了健康,而未考虑健康的人更爱运动。目前很多国内学者也注意到:内生性是影响因果推断的核心问题。具体而言,回归分析可通过控制协变量使不同组别具备可比性(如运动和不运动2组人群的健康程度比较),但总有一些无法观测到的变量(如基因特征)未被纳入控制变量,而它们又与解释变量(如基因特征、运动偏好)相关,违反回归分析中“随机误差项与解释变量相互独立”这一基本假设,从而导致估计参数(回归系数)偏误。 相似文献
2.
采用Pearson相关分析、协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验,对我国外商直接投资与体育用品进出口贸易进行相关性分析、长期均衡关系检验,以及对短期非均衡的协调机制进行研究。结果表明,我国外商直接投资与体育用品出口贸易存在显著性相关关系（P<0.05）;从长期看,外商直接投资对我国体育用品进口贸易没有促进作用,而对体育用品出口贸易有促进作用;在短期内,外商直接投资的短期波动对体育用品出口有显著影响,外商直接投资与体育用品出口由短期偏离长期均衡关系的协调力度显著;外商直接投资与体育用品进出口贸易不存在单向和双向的Granger因果关系。并提出相关结论和政策建议。 相似文献
3.
郑凯 《沈阳体育学院学报》2011,30(6):60-63
在体育科学研究实践中,常常见到一些研究者将利用统计方法建立起来的变量间的相关联系,直接解释为现象间的因果关系,并试图依此对结果做出预测,这完全是对因果关系的误解和误用.有鉴于此,通过对因果关系研究的追溯,客观评价因果分析现状,梳理因果关系研究方法,最大程度地消除关于因果关系的误会与误解,以使人们能够更清醒、理智地进行因果分析,更加科学地运用因果规律认识和把握千变万化的世界.迄今为止,无论是关于因果关系的概念、判定原则还是判定方法,都没有提供具有充分性和必要性的完备条件.因此,所做出的都应该是“初始原因”或“假定原因”判断.统计规律不等同于因果规律,所谓“格兰杰因果关系检验”说到底也是一种统计检验方法,不能作为肯定或否定因果关系的最终根据.对于因果关系,人们至今还没有找到真正有效的解决办法. 相似文献
4.
大学生体育锻炼行为的阶段变化与心理因素研究 总被引：34，自引：6，他引：28
将西方被广泛应用的阶段变化理论及其测试工具引入国内,以大学生为研究对象,通过3个连续的研究对测试问卷进行了“本土化”改造和标准化,并提出了3个用于解释和说明影响我国大学生锻炼行为阶段变化的心理决定因素间因果关系的研究模型。研究结果表明,我国大学生的锻炼行为可分为5个阶段,但在阶段的划分及影响阶段变化的心理因素上与西方存在着极大的区别,有必要进行后续研究。 相似文献
5.
依托 Howard-Sheth Model的理论,提出了两个解释体育活动参与性消费行为的验证模型,通过实证研究的方式,对消费行为的关系进行分析,以考察杭州市经营性羽毛球场(馆)消费者现有的消费行为.随机抽取了杭州市52家经营性羽毛球场(馆)中的1 200名消费者进行问卷调查.通过对调查数据的进一步相关和回归分析表明,消费行为刺激因素是影响消费行为心理因素和反应因素的主要原因,彼此间存在相关预测关系,回归模型的解释变异分别为R2=0.20和R2=0.27;消费心理因素对消费行为反应因素具有预测效应,其解释变异为R2=0.29;另外,消费心理因素与消费经历、消费频率及消费时间存在着相关预测关系,其解释变异分别为R2=0.03、R2=0.06、R2=0.04;消费行为反应因素与消费频率、消费时间及消费支出之间存在相关预测关系,其解释变异分别为R2=0.09、R2=0.04、R2=0.04.研究分析发现,模型2更适合解释数据,Howard-Sheth Model只能部分地解释羽毛球活动参与性消费行为. 相似文献
6.
目的:研究探索体育锻炼行为动机冲突解释模型.在测试人口学变量调节效应的同时,验证刻板印象和自我意识分别在该模型中的中介解释效应.方法:研究以浙江省5所高校的789名大学生为研究对象,完成动机冲突、刻板印象、自我意识及体育锻炼行为的问卷.运用分层回归分析和3步中介效应验证法进行数据统计分析.结果:1)性别和年级变量在动机冲突对体育锻炼行为的解释过程中不存在调节效应的作用;2)刻板印象变量在大学生体育锻炼行为动机冲突解释模型中,存在不完全的中介效应,其效应值占总效应值的30％,对模型的变异解释率为2％;3)自我意识的公众自我意识维度在该模型中不存在中介效应的作用.但是,个体自我意识的维度在该模型中则具有不完全的中介效应,其解释效应占模型总效应的22％,变异解释率为2.8％.结论:大学生体育锻炼行为动机冲突解释模型成立,其中;刻板印象和个体自我意识分别具有中介解释效应,它们可以影响动机冲突对体育锻炼行为的预测效果.同时,人口学变量在该解释模型中不具有调节效应的作用. 相似文献
7.
研究目的掌握江西省体育场地发展变化的特点,为有关部门对体育场地的规划、建设和使用提供客观依据.研究方法运用时序分析、偏相关、曲线回归等方法对江西省第5次体育场地普查的数据资料进行动态分析.结论从1994年开始,江西省体育场地的数量、面积和投资金额均出现快速增长,年均增长率分别为22.7%、11.6%和34.7%;预计10年后体育场地的数量、面积和投资金额将分别为现在的2.9、3.0和3.3倍;反映体育场地规模的指标场地数量、面积和投资金额相关显著,但它们属共变关系,而非因果关系. 相似文献
8.
随着游泳项目的基础设施,参与人数增多,其造成的伤害事故也逐渐增多。游泳伤害事故的发生原因主要有:1)参与者原因;2)场馆原因;3)其他原因。本文将游泳伤害事故定性为侵权行为故其构成要件有:1)行为的违法性;2)损害事实;3)因果关系;4)过错责任。游泳馆对伤害事故的抗辩事由主要有自甘风险、受害人同意、第三人侵权、不可抗力、受害人过错。主要结论:游泳项目属于高危体育项目,司法对伤害事故中游泳馆的责任缺乏合理性、细致化的解释,从而忽视游泳馆的合法权益。建议:司法审判时应该要明晰主要责任,强化高危体育项目法制宣传,优化顶层设计,制定更高层次的专项法规。 相似文献
9.
研究目的:研究把运动员的害怕失败作为中介变量,探索感知的教练员领导行为对运动员心理疲劳影响的解释机制,并着重观察运动员所感知的教练员民主领导行为和专制领导行为的不同作用影响。研究方法:在全国范围内采用随机抽样法,让处于不同项目和不同等级的347名(男性为173人;女性为174)专业运动员完成“运动领导行为量表”、“失败表现评估量表”以及“运动员心理疲劳问卷”,所获数据采用回归和Bootstrap分析,分别对构建的民主领导行为解释假设模型和专制领导行为解释假设模型进行拟合。研究结果:①感知教练员民主领导行为会显著减少运动员的心理疲劳感,而知教练员专制领导行为则会显著增加运动员的心理疲劳;②感知教练员民主领导行为与运动员害怕失败不存在显著相关性,而感知教练员专制领导行为则会显著增加运动员的害怕失败;③由于感知教练员民主领导行为与运动员的害怕失败不具有显著相关性,因此害怕失败在民主领导行为假设模型中的中介解释作用假设不成立;④由于感知教练员专制型领导行为会显著增加运动员害怕失败,所以害怕失败在专制领导行为假设模型中的中介解释作用假设成立。研究结论:通过对运动员所感知到的两种教练员领导行为进行观察,可以发现专制型领导行为对运动员的负面情绪影响是多方面的。它不仅会在训练和比赛的过程中直接引起运动员的心理疲劳,还会通过运动员害怕失败感的叠加效应来增加其心理疲劳。因此,研究建议在运动实践中应该提倡教练员有计划性的多采用民主型的领导行为帮助运动员有效的减少心理疲劳。 相似文献
10.
考查大学生体育课对休闲时间身体活动行为的贡献,构建适合大学生的跨情境预测模型,为干预大学生的身体活动行为提供理论依据。假设大学生体育课上的三重相关效能(推论自我效能、他人效能、自我效能)可以影响大学生对体育课的自主性动机和积极的情绪体验,并进而影响其休闲时间身体活动的自主性动机和行为。研究采用心理测量法,选取482名大学生参与研究,研究材料为《三重相关效能量表》、《因果关系感知量表》、《锻炼诱导情绪量表》、《锻炼动机量表》和《体育活动等级量表-3》,通过结构公式模型检验各变量之间的关系。研究结果显示:假设模型的拟合优度良好,对身体活动行为的解释力为18%;体育课的自主动机和情绪体验可显著预测休闲时间的身体活动自主动机,两者共解释其34%的总变异;自我效能可显著正向预测休闲时间的身体活动行为。结论:假设模型是适合大学生身体活动行为的预测干预模型;自我效能和他人效能通过动机和情绪的跨情境迁移作用,积极影响大学生对身体活动行为的参与。研究为干预大学生身体活动行为的增加提供了理论依据,建议干预时重点提高体育课上大学生的自我效能,并促使其产生积极的情绪体验,后续研究应加入纵向干预研究验证假设。 相似文献
11.
The general purpose of this article is threefold. Firstly, it is to further the notion of coaching as orchestration through developing insight into precisely how and what coaches orchestrate. Secondly, it is to firmly position coaching as a relational practice, whilst thirdly it is to better define coaching’s complex nature and how it can be somewhat ordered. Following an introduction where the purpose and value of the article are outlined, we present the reflective method of critical companionship through which we explored and addressed the aforementioned purposes. The case for the quiddity, or the ‘just whatness’ (i.e. the inherent nature or essence) of coaching as involving complex, relational acts which can be somewhat explained through recourse to the developing theory of orchestration is subsequently made. In doing so, two precise examples of how we as coaches orchestrate sporting practice are presented. The article concludes with both a summary of the principal argument(s) made, and some reflective considerations for future directions. 相似文献
12.
略论运动生物力学的研究方法与测量技术 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
文章认为:1,仅依靠牛顿分析力学的研究方法,运动生物力学只能停留在“研究人体机械运动规律”的水平,“走出系统”的研究方法适合于对活体系统的生物力学研究;2,“理论模型”需数据支持才具有应用价值,“数据模型”需相应的数学化才具有理论意义;3,活体运动过程的测量应建立参数采集与测量的标准化和参数分析与评价的专家系统;4,应界定常规参数和敏感参数,并区别参数间的平行关系和因果关系,测量精度的提高主要应依靠测量参数数字化过程的分析方法的进步。 相似文献
13.
The long jump has been widely studied in recent years. Two models exist in the literature which define the relationship between selected variables that affect performance. Both models suggest that the critical phase of the long jump event is the touch-down to take-off phase, as it is in this phase that the necessary vertical velocity is generated. Many three dimensional studies of the long jump exist, but the only studies to have reported detailed data on this phase were two-dimensional in nature. In these, the poor relationships obtained between key variables and performance led to the suggestion that there may be some relevant information in data in the third dimension. The aims of this study were to conduct a three-dimensional analysis of the touch-down to take-off phase in the long jump and to explore the interrelationships between key variables. Fourteen male long jumpers were filmed using three-dimensional methods during the finals of the 1994 (n = 8) and 1995 (n = 6) UK National Championships. Various key variables for the long jump were used in a series of correlational and multiple regression analyses. The relationships between key variables when correlated directly one-to-one were generally poor. However, when analysed using a multiple regression approach, a series of variables was identified which supported the general principles outlined in the two models. These variables could be interpreted in terms of speed, technique and strength. We concluded that in the long jump, variables that are important to performance are interdependent and can only be identified by using appropriate statistical techniques. This has implications for a better understanding of the long jump event and it is likely that this finding can be generalized to other technical sports skills. 相似文献
14.
Abstract Previous investigations regarding activity during the post-knowledge of results (KR) interval have considered the performance of interference groups over KR-supplied acquisition trials as indicative of effects upon learning. The absence of transfer tests in these studies, however, preclude such an assumption. Indeed, the use of a retention test in the present investigation (no-KR trials following an interpolated phase) provided evidence suggesting that, while activity during the post-KR interval is detrimental to performance, no such assumption can be made regarding this effect upon learning. These findings are discussed relative to recent arguments that some of the commonly accepted “Laws of KR” may be contradictory when applied simultaneously to motor learning and performance. 相似文献
15.
通过文献资料法、专家访谈法、问卷调查法、数理统计法、实验法,对教学方法的研究现状,对分层合作的教学在青少年网球教学中的运用进行研究.主要研究这种教学方法对学生学习效果产生的影响,利用统计数据分析实验组和对照组学习成绩变化,并在实验前后对学生做效度调查问卷.从中找出一些特点与规律,旨在为青少年网球教学和训练提供一定的参考,同时也为网球教学活动提供了一个理论依据. 相似文献
16.
Wray Vamplew 《国际体育史杂志》2015,32(15):1835-1849
Illustrated by examples of both good and poor practice, this paper makes a plea for sports historians to utilize more statistics in their studies. It accepts that some research is not amenable to a quantitative approach, but suggests that generally counting and basic statistical display can benefit the researcher. Numbers enable comparisons to be made, events to be put in perspective, and the typical to be distinguished from the unusual. However, statistical evidence needs to be rigorously checked for reliability and validity and in undertaking statistical research the quantitative sports historian must not neglect their skills as historians. 相似文献
17.
普通法系国家体育法学研究的基本框架——对若干体育法学著作的考察 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
运用文献资料分析法，考察普通法系国家体育法著作的概况，具体分析英国、美国和加拿大的若干体育法著作的主要内容。研究认为，普通法系国家的体育法学研究高度关注体育领域竞争法和劳动法的适用问题}在研究对象上重视对体育行会规章制度的探讨;在方法论上以问题为中心，强调对判例的研究。英美法系国家的体育法学研究已经有了较为成熟的基本研究框架，并具有自己的特色。 相似文献
18.
The long jump has been widely studied in recent years. Two models exist in the literature which define the relationship between selected variables that affect performance. Both models suggest that the critical phase of the long jump event is the touch-down to take-off phase, as it is in this phase that the necessary vertical velocity is generated. Many three dimensional studies of the long jump exist, but the only studies to have reported detailed data on this phase were two-dimensional in nature. In these, the poor relationships obtained between key variables and performance led to the suggestion that there may be some relevant information in data in the third dimension. The aims of this study were to conduct a three-dimensional analysis of the touch-down to take-off phase in the long jump and to explore the interrelationships between key variables. Fourteen male long jumpers were filmed using three-dimensional methods during the finals of the 1994 (n = 8) and 1995 (n = 6) UK National Championships. Various key variables for the long jump were used in a series of correlational and multiple regression analyses. The relationships between key variables when correlated directly one-to-one were generally poor. However, when analysed using a multiple regression approach, a series of variables was identified which supported the general principles outlined in the two models. These variables could be interpreted in terms of speed, technique and strength. We concluded that in the long jump, variables that are important to performance are interdependent and can only be identified by using appropriate statistical techniques. This has implications for a better understanding of the long jump event and it is likely that this finding can be generalized to other technical sports skills. 相似文献
19.
运用专家咨询法、数理统计法、灰色关联分析法,以1988年至2004年近5届夏季奥运会为例,对其财务收入状况进行了系统整理,在此基础上对奥运会财务收入及各影响因子进行关联分析,求出各影响因子对奥运会总收入的关联系数及关联度,以揭示奥运会财务状况变化的规律,为以后奥运会的举办及各种大型体育赛事的承办提供财务方面的参考。 相似文献
20.
Constitutional factors are relevant for outstanding performance in team handball. Only a few studies focus on female players, and positional specialization is likely to be necessary regarding constitutional demands. Therefore, the current study will research constitutional aspects concerning the different playing positions in female team handball with respect to the association between specialization and success. For this purpose, 654 female players from German clubs at all performance levels were tested regarding age, body height, body weight and body fat percentage in addition biographical data with respect to their handball career. These findings make it possible to calculate an expertise index stating the success of every player. Specialization can be quantified by applying a suitable formula to the data. After statistical analysis it is evident that there are significant differences between the positions regarding constitutional factors (e.?g., body height with p < 0.001, wing players being the smallest players). Expertise correlates with different constitutional performance factors for each position, e.?g. body height in goalkeepers (correlation coefficient 0.301). While specialization correlates positively with expertise regarding particular constitutional performance factors on some positions, e.?g. body height for half backs and goalkeepers (0.392; 0.306), it correlates negatively regarding the percentage of body fat for half backs (?0.267) and body weight for centre backs (?0.389). Consequently, position specialization is most probably contributing to success in female team handball. 相似文献