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西北地区水资源承载力分析预测与评价 总被引:56,自引:3,他引:56
水资源是干旱、半干旱地区社会经济发展和生态环境保护的关键制约因素,水资源承载力的分析计算和评价是干旱、半干旱地区寻求区域可持续发展道路的重要依据。该文探讨了水资源承载力状况的评价方法,建立了水资源承载力评价指标体系,对各评价指标的可承载极限临界值和理想值进行了界定,建立了水资源承载力模糊综合评判模型,并运用之对西北地区现状年及未来10a、20a、50a不同发展情景方案下的水资源承载状况进行了评价。模型预测结果表明,通过生态环境治理、节水技术进步和产业结构调整等综合措施,未来各年段西北地区水资源承载力状况将逐步改善,其中以采用A1+B2+C2发展情景方案将使水资源承载状况综合效果最佳,节约用水、降低水资源开发利用率,提高用水效率和控制人口增长则是提高西北地区水资源承载力水平的关键因素。 相似文献
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水资源承载力的合理评价对水资源可持续发展有重要的指导意义。本文采用可变集理论建立了水资源承载力可变集评价模型,构建了陕西省水资源承载力综合评价指标体系,应用该模型从纵向和横向两个维度对陕西省水资源承载力进行综合评价,并提出相应的水资源承载力提升策略。研究结果表明:本文构建的基于可变集理论的水资源承载力评价方法,能够较好的描述水资源承载力的稳定状态和变化趋势,研究样本的分析结果证实了陕西省水资源承载力近几年呈稳步上升趋势,但空间分布不均衡的问题比较严重的现实情况,验证了该模型合理性和客观性。 相似文献
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水资源短缺与水环境恶化已成为京津冀经济社会可持续发展的主要制约因素,水资源承载力评价是区域水资源合理配置的关键。本文从水资源系统对经济、社会系统的支撑角度出发,选取11个主要影响水资源承载力系统的因素作为评价指标,建立了基于水量、水质、水域、水流的水资源承载力评估方法,研究外调水对京津冀水资源承载力的影响。结果表明京津冀地区水资源承载力都属超载,天津、北京尤为严重。京津冀地区水资源承载的压力主要来自于水资源系统,水资源短缺是京津冀水资源承载力超载的主要因素,人均水资源量是影响区域水资源承载力的关键因子。外调水对改善京津冀水资源承载力具有一定贡献,尤其是对北京、天津的影响较为显著。在水资源短缺时期外调水的影响更为明显,在2000年特枯年,天津市引滦与引黄入津使得水资源承载力提高了13%。南水北调使得2015年北京、天津两地水资源承载力分别提高了5%。外调水对水资源承载力影响研究为京津冀水资源的合理利用提供了依据,对于实现水资源与经济社会的协调发展具有重要意义。 相似文献
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北京市水资源政策对水资源承载力的影响研究 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
在对北京市水资源承载力特征及其影响政策分析的基础上,提出用系统动力学(SD)来定量研究不同政策对水资源承载力的影响.在水资源合理配置的前提下,以北京市社会经济环境系统为研究对象,建立北京市水资源系统动力学模型,并将水资源承载力指标融合在模型中进行计算.通过动态仿真模拟,预测北京市5项水资源政策--实施应急供水工程、推进再生水回用、调整工业产业结构、发展农业节水灌溉和提高用水价格对水资源承载力的长期影响,为确保北京市用水的长期安全和社会经济的持续发展提供科学的决策依据.研究表明,应急供水工程政策对北京市水资源承载力的影响最大,而若同时实施这5项政策,到2010年,可承载的工业总产值、农业总产值和非农业人口将分别达到9 663×108元、417×108元和1 527×104人. 相似文献
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基于量-质-域-流的京津冀水资源承载力综合评价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
京津冀地区人均水资源占有量低,用水压力大,水资源问题突出,因此亟需对该地区进行水资源承载力综合评价研究,以期为水资源综合规划与高效利用、区域可持续发展等提供一定的理论基础与实践经验。为此,首先对京津冀水资源利用情况进行分析,提出了京津冀水资源所面临的问题,以问题为导向;其次对水资源承载系统进行解析,构建基于量-质-域-流内涵的京津冀水资源承载力综合评价指标体系;最后利用AHP、熵权法对评价指标进行主客观组合赋权,借助TOPSIS评价模型对水资源承载力进行综合得分计算。结果表明:①京津冀地区水资源总量匮乏,水资源过度开发利用,地下水持续超采等已经导致该地区水生态功能退化,形成了集中连片的地下水漏斗区等;②通过对研究区水资源承载力评价计算,2006—2016年京津冀水资源承载力综合评价得分总体上呈现波动式增长态势,表明水资源承载力有所增强,但整体分值不高,水资源压力形势依然严峻。基于此,京津冀亟需构建区域、流域水资源联动机制,以京津冀协同发展为契机,针对不同地区的发展基础与城市定位,遵循“以水量城”的城镇化政策和“以水定产”的产业政策,深入贯彻最严格的水资源管理条例,实现整个区域水资源承载力的提升。 相似文献
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水资源短缺已成为制约滇中城市群发展的主要因素之一,客观认识水资源生态承载力及其平衡性是解决滇中城市群缺水问题和实现区域社会-经济-生态协调发展的前提。运用水资源生态足迹模型、基尼系数以及重心模型对滇中城市群水资源生态承载力的供需平衡、时空平衡以及平衡性的偏离程度进行分析。结果表明:①2006-2014年滇中城市群水资源生态承载力为(0.216~1.370)hm2/人,区域内部差异和年际变化较大;②水资源生态承载力在供需上呈现不平衡状态,在时间变化上呈现不稳定状态;③水资源生态承载力的综合基尼系数为0.372~0.626,总体上处于“集聚程度较大”的区间范围,空间变异系数为0.358~0.804,水资源生态承载力在空间分布上不平衡;④滇中城市群水资源生态承载力重心与其几何中心偏离,偏向南部地区,年均偏移距离为40.6km,区域间水资源生态承载力与人口、经济分布以及资源环境极不对应。 相似文献
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《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):2-3
CAS should stick to the principle of rendering service to, and giving impetus for, the development of China's science enterprise by making S&T innovations, said CAS President LU Yongxiang. The CAS president made the remarks in a recent talk to communicate the gist of the winter session of the Party's Leading-member Group at CAS, which was held from 7 to 11 January in Beijing. 相似文献
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《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1)
With great care, Dr. ZHOU Zhonghe takes out a package wrapped by cotton tissue from a drawer and says: "This is the gem of our collections: the fossil of a bird that lived 125 million years ago!" Then, pointing at a tiny mound, he explains: "Look, this is the claw and that is the head. It was in the egg shell and ready to hatch ... The species fell into a family of waterside inhabitants." 相似文献
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《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):13-14
Aresearch project on the greenhouse cultivation of Swertia chirayita Buch Ham, a popular herbal drug used by the Tibetan people against liver and gallbladder diseases, recently passed the acceptance check by a panel of experts under the auspices of Qinghai Provincial S&T Bureau. The feat was accomplished by researchers from the Lanzhoubased CAS Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology. 相似文献
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The research into the origins of domestic animals is of significance not only for understanding their development per se but also for making clear the human society evolution. Although there are evidences to show that pigs were independently domesticated in a variety of places throughout the world the detailed scenario of the origin dispersal of domestic pigs in East Asia remains unclear.…… 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):7-7
The research into the origins of domestic animals is of significance not only for understanding their development per se, but also for making clear the human society evolution. Although there are evidences to show that pigs were independently domesticated in a variety of places throughout the world, the detailed scenario of the origin and dispersal of domestic pigs in East Asia remains unclear. 相似文献
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Among the galaxy of research development organizations in northwest Beijing's Zhongguancun district known as China's Silicon Valley two are especially well-known to IT researchers: Microsoft Research Asia 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):47-49
Among the galaxy of research and development organizations in northwest Beijing's Zhongguancun district, known as China's Silicon Valley, two are especially well-known to IT researchers: Microsoft Research Asia (MSRA), and, within a few blocks on the other side of the street, the CAS Institute of Automation (CASIA). While most people in Chinese scientific organizations strive to move to a large foreign counterpart, Dr. Stan Z. Li (LI Ziqing) moves against the stream. 相似文献
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Prof. SUN Changpu from the CAS Institute of Theoretical Physics coworkers from University of Basel in Switzerland have worked out a way - at least in theory - to split a beam of molecules according to their chirality. The technique involves passing the molecules through three different laser beams is similar to the famous Stern-Gerlach effect whereby a beam of atoms passing through a magnetic field is split in two according to the atoms' spin states 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2008,22(1):23-23
Prof. SUN Changpu from the CAS Institute of Theoretical Physics and coworkers from University of Basel in Switzerland have worked out a way --at least in theory --to split a beam of molecules according to their chirality. The technique involves passing the molecules through three different laser beams and is similar to the famous Stern-Gerlach effect, whereby a beam of atoms passing through a magnetic field is split in two according to the atoms' spin states (Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 130403). 相似文献
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《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2014,(3):212-213
<正>In February 2014,the 30th Chinese Antarctic inland expedition team reported that they have successfully conducted the seeing measurement at the Antarctic Taishan Station using a Differential Image Motion Monitor(DIMM)developed by the Nanjing Institute of Astronomical Optic and Technology(NIAOT),Chinese Academy of Sciences.In astronomy,seeing is a physical parameter that describes the irregular movement and blur of the star 相似文献
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XIN Ling 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2014,(4):270-271
Amassive overhaul is coming to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). To straighten its "fragmented, inefficient research", the academy has decided to restructure its 104 institutes for better teamwork. 相似文献
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SONG Jianlan 《中国科学院院刊(英文版)》2014,(4)
<正>DNA demethylation in mammalian zygotes,a biochemical process through which the parental genomes let go the epigenetic marks from their"past lives"to obtain totipotency,has long fascinated biologists:how does it happen?A joint team at the CAS Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences tells a surprising story. 相似文献
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China is one of the fastest growing economies worldwide. Are science and research also in the fast lane? We talked with LUO Yuan, scientist at the Institute of Coal Chemistry in Shanxi, and Axel Mosig, Professor at Ruhr University in Bochum, who has first-hand experience working and living in China. 相似文献