2008年我国房地产市场预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王雯珺  汪成豪  高鹏  董纪昌 《中国科学院院刊》2008,23(1):43-49

本文利用2002年1月—2007年9月的季度数据,采用ARIMA模型,对2008年我国房地产市场投资、房地产市场需求、房地产市场供给以及房地产价格指数等进行了预测。结果显示:2008年我国房地产市场价格增幅仍将保持在一个较高的水平,房地产投资继续平稳增长,需求结构基本稳态发展,供给结构调整进程缓慢,供需不平衡矛盾继续存在。此外,本文还对2008年影响房地产价格的可能因素进行了分析,并给出了相关的政策建议。  相似文献   

基于子集门限自回归模型的负荷短期预测(英文)     

孙海健 《东南大学学报》1999,(2)

介绍了时间序列的子集门限自回归模型,该模型可以复现非线性时间序列的周期性或季节性趋势．文中给出了子集门限自回归模型的辨识方法并应用于电力负荷的建模和短期预报．应用实例表明,其预测精度较高．  相似文献   

利用灰色预测与模式识别方法构建网络舆情预测与预警模型     

杜智涛  谢新洲 《图书情报工作》2013,57(15):27-33

针对网络舆情主题多样、内容复杂、数据海量等特点,构建一个由三级指标构成的多层次网络舆情研判指标体系;在此基础上,运用灰色预测方法建立网络舆情预测模型,运用模式识别方法建立网络舆情预警模型,并选取60个网络舆情事件为训练样本,确立舆情警级分类规则,对该模型的可用性进行验证;鉴于网络舆情预测与预警所需要的数据量大、计算复杂,提出网络舆情预测与预警系统建设的整体架构,以进行数据处理。  相似文献   

供应链可承诺量配置决策模型     

郑迪  陈淮莉  黄有方 《上海海事大学学报》2009,30(3):1-4

为使企业在满足需求的前提下获得最小的成本配置计划,将企业正常产能、可用产能(Capability to Promise, CTP)和外部可得资源作为企业的可承诺量(Available to Promise, ATP), 针对影响ATP配置问题的主要成本因素,建立以成本最小化为目标函数的决策模型,运用迭代计算法,得到决策模型的最优解.运用该决策模型,以企业前期需求预测为基础,结合具体案例,给出企业的可承诺量配置图表.结果表明该决策模型的可操作性.  相似文献   

Dual-norm based dynamic graph diffusion network for temporal prediction     

《Information processing & management》2023,60(4):103387

Precise prediction of Multivariate Time Series (MTS) has been playing a pivotal role in numerous kinds of applications. Existing works have made significant efforts to capture temporal tendency and periodical patterns, but they always ignore abrupt variations and heterogeneous/spatial associations of sensory data. In this paper, we develop a dual normalization (dual-norm) based dynamic graph diffusion network (DNGDN) to capture hidden intricate correlations of MTS data for temporal prediction. Specifically, we design time series decomposition and dual-norm mechanism to learn the latent dependencies and alleviate the adverse effect of abnormal MTS data. Furthermore, a dynamic graph diffusion network is adopted for adaptively exploring the spatial correlations among variables. Extensive experiments are performed on 3 real world experimental datasets with 8 representative baselines for temporal prediction. The performances of DNGDN outperforms all baselines with at least 4% lower MAPE over all datasets.  相似文献   

The evolution of the operational earthquake forecasting community of practice: the L’Aquila communication crisis as a triggering event for organizational renewal     

Deanna D. Sellnow  Joel Iverson  Timothy L. Sellnow 《Journal of Applied Communication Research》2017,45(2):121-139

The scientific community of earthquake experts has long grappled with how to communicate earthquake probabilities successfully to non-scientific publics. Perhaps most central to their concern is the widely held belief that scientists can actually predict earthquakes when, in fact, they cannot. The potential consequences of this miscommunication problem were appallingly realized as a result of the 6 April 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy. Failed risk communication among scientists, a public official, and L’Aquila residents prior to the earthquake resulted in 309 deaths, 1500 injuries, and 65,000 people displaced from their homes, as well as the sentencing of six scientists and one public official to six years in prison for manslaughter. This paper examines how and why the L’Aquila Earthquake communication crisis ultimately redefined the international scientific earthquake community of practice and its discourse beyond that of community resilience to organizational learning and renewal.  相似文献   

浦东开发中车辆轮渡运量的数学模型     

程祖德 《上海海事大学学报》1991,(1)

本文通过3点法基本原理和基本方法的介绍建立了机动车辆越江轮渡运量的数学模型,并加以分析。  相似文献   

Analysis of the predictive qualities of betting odds and FIFA World Ranking: evidence from the 2006, 2010 and 2014 Football World Cups     

Fabian Wunderlich  Daniel Memmert 《Journal of sports sciences》2016,34(24):2176-2184

ABSTRACT

The present study aims to investigate the ability of a new framework enabling to derive more detailed model-based predictions from ranking systems. These were compared to predictions from the bet market including data from the World Cups 2006, 2010, and 2014. The results revealed that the FIFA World Ranking has essentially improved its predictive qualities compared to the bet market since the mode of calculation was changed in 2006. While both predictors were useful to obtain accurate predictions in general, the world ranking was able to outperform the bet market significantly for the World Cup 2014 and when the data from the World Cups 2010 and 2014 were pooled. Our new framework can be extended in future research to more detailed prediction tasks (i.e., predicting the final scores of a match or the tournament progress of a team).  相似文献   

初探群体性治安事件的预测     

朱敦军 《江西教育学院学报》2008,29(5):15-18

当前,群体性治安事件是新时期我国社会主义内部矛盾的一种突出表现,也是人民内部矛盾变化的一种新动向。此类矛盾发生频繁,危害极大,已成为当前我国社会的一个突出问题。导致我国群体性治安事件频发的原因是多方面的．但在处理群体性治安事件时存在着重处置、轻预测的问题,不能不说是当前我国群体性治安事件频发的重要原因之一。因此,当前必须树立使用少量的人力物力预测和预防,而不是花大量的人力物力去处理群体性治安事件的新观念,高度重视群体性治安事件的预防工作,尤其要重视群体性治安事件的预测。  相似文献   

相似的未来与未来的相似——对相似性原理运用于社会预测的思考   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

阎耀军  吴中元 《未来与发展》2007,14(1):11-16

天地万物间的事物虽各不相同，但总有相似之处。因此人们利用这种事物之间的相似性，通过已知事物的历史和现状，来推断其他事物的“相似的未来”。选种推断，在自然领域曾经屡试不爽，但是在社会领域，虽然社会历史有时会有“惊人的相似”，但就总体而言，“未来的相似”却大打折扣，因为社会历史不会简单的重复。那么，相似性原理能否应用于社会预测？如果能够．它会有哪些局限性？这就是本文所要探讨的问题。  相似文献