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1.
地铁人流集中,一旦发生火灾容易造成人员伤亡和财产损失,应对地铁火灾的风险进行评估。通过建立引起地铁火灾主要风险因素的故障树模型,运用模糊故障树分析方法 (Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis)对地铁火灾的风险进行定量分析,得出地铁火灾事故发生的概率和故障树底事件的概率重要度和临界重要度,并对重要度的大小进行排序,为地铁火灾风险的有效控制提供应对措施,保证地铁系统的运营安全。  相似文献   

2.
本文基于云南输电线路塔基边坡工程实例,建立导致边坡失稳的主要风险因素的事故树模型。通过运用事故树分析方法对边坡失稳的风险进行定量分析,得出边坡失稳事故的发生概率以及事故树底事件的重要度。对评估方法进行了改进,评估底事件发生概率的模糊性上采用专家判断法结合模糊集理论的方法,该方法为输电线路塔基边坡的风险控制提供理论指导。  相似文献   

3.
考虑企业战略转型过程的阶段划分,以波导集团为例,揭示其战略转型风险免疫失效的具体表征;进一步地应用模糊故障树分析方法构建波导集团战略转型风险免疫失效的测度模型,通过对底事件免疫因素和上层具体战略转型风险因素之间关系的定量分析,验证企业组织免疫在其战略转型风险管理中的重要意义.  相似文献   

4.
长大下坡路段极易发生交通事故,长期以来都是事故黑点区域。由于事故的发生是由多种原因作用共同导致,以至于在调查事故原因时忽略了某些内在原因,致使多方面的事故致因信息遗失。笔者简要阐述了长大下坡伤亡事故致因理论,采用故障树分析方法,求得长大下坡路段伤亡事故故障树的最小割集合及其结构重要度,从中得出长大下坡伤亡事故主要与施救不及时及人、车、路因素有关。最后,提出了长大下坡路段事伤亡故预防措施。  相似文献   

5.
针对波音737飞机的空调系统典型故障模式,介绍了故障树分析的具体方法,引入了分析故障树所需的割集的概念,介绍了怎样由割集通过底事件求顶事件的概率并应用故障树分析方法进行定性和定量分析。  相似文献   

6.
刮板输送机是矿井工作面及顺槽的主要运输设备,在煤矿生产过程中发挥着重要的作用。刮板链断链是刮板输送机中最常见的事故,它严重地威胁着矿井安全生产与职工的人身安全。因此要重点研究刮板输送机断链事故发生的原因,并提出相应的预防措施,这对矿井的安全生产有着重要的意义。  相似文献   

7.
朱先明 《科技通报》2019,35(7):118-121,125
将汽车故障的各种类型与导致故障发生的原因进行分类与总结,建立故障诊断的知识库,研究了模糊故障树的建立方法以及常用符号的使用方法,以电机机械故障为例说明了模糊故障树的建立,逻辑符号的使用使得模糊故障树之间层次关系鲜明。以该模糊故障树分析方法为基础设计了基于模糊故障树的汽车故障诊断系统结构,该系统的设计提高了故障诊断的准确率,为工作人员快速定位故障位置提供了条件,提高了汽车的使用寿命。  相似文献   

8.
尾管悬挂器是尾管固井工艺的核心部分,为了识别尾管悬挂器的主要失效原因。结合工具的结构及其工作原理,进行了尾管悬挂器失效的故障树定性分析,得到了22个基本事件,计算出18个最小割集和8个最小径集。结合现场实际,引入模糊数学分析理论,将基本事件扩展为模糊数学集合,建立了基于故障树的尾管悬挂器失效模糊数学模型。模型需要通过理论分析和大量现场资料的整合分析确定基本事件不同程度发生对顶事件发生的影响程度。该模型为以尾管悬挂器为代表的固井工具的定性和定量分析探索了一种新的研究方法。  相似文献   

9.
苏义坤  田金信 《预测》2006,25(3):66-70
提出了耦合故障树的概念和分析原理,应用该原理对建筑施工现场的安全事故进行了描述。通过分析基本事件发生概率和构造事故后果严重度矩阵,实现对施工作业过程安全风险的综合评价,并对影响安全风险的基本事件给出排序算法,为施工企业评价施工现场安全风险,提高安全管理效率提供了新的思路。  相似文献   

10.
本文针对航空器运行风险,提出采用故障树分析方法,并引入了模糊数学的理论对概率进行模糊化处理的观点。在民航运输运行风险控制行业起到作用。如付诸现实将产生强化风险管控能力,减小事故发生概率的经济效益。  相似文献   

11.
CAS should stick to the principle of rendering service to, and giving impetus for, the development of China's science enterprise by making S&T innovations, said CAS President LU Yongxiang. The CAS president made the remarks in a recent talk to communicate the gist of the winter session of the Party's Leading-member Group at CAS, which was held from 7 to 11 January in Beijing.  相似文献   

12.
With great care, Dr. ZHOU Zhonghe takes out a package wrapped by cotton tissue from a drawer and says: "This is the gem of our collections: the fossil of a bird that lived 125 million years ago!" Then, pointing at a tiny mound, he explains: "Look, this is the claw and that is the head. It was in the egg shell and ready to hatch ... The species fell into a family of waterside inhabitants."  相似文献   

13.
This study examined how students who had no prior experience with videoconferencing would react to the use of videoconferencing as an instructional medium. Students enrolled in seven different courses completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the semester and again at the end of the semester. Students at the origination and remote sites did not differ in their reactions toward videoconferencing but there was a significant difference for gender. Women reacted less favorably to videoconferencing. Compared to the beginning of the semester, students reported significantly less positive attitudes toward taking a course through videoconferencing at the end of the semester. There were no significant differences in students' attitudes toward videoconferencing across courses at the beginning of the semester but there were significant differences across the courses at the end of the semester. The results suggest the need for better preparation for both students and instructors.  相似文献   

14.
Ajoint study by Prof. ZHANG Zhibin from the CAS Institute of Zoology and his co-workers from Norway, US and Swiss have indicated that historical outbreaks of migratory locusts in China were associated with cold spells, suggesting that China's projected climate warming could decrease the pest's numbers. The study was published in Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences on 17 September, 2007.  相似文献   

15.
A computer-mediated group is a complex entity whose members exchange many types of information via multiple means of communication in pursuit of goals specific to their environment. Over time, they coordinate technical features of media with locally enacted use to achieve a viable working arrangement. To explore this complex interaction, a case study is presented of the social networks of interactions and media use among members of a class of computer-supported distance learners. Results show how group structures associated with project teams dominated who communicated with whom, about what, and via which media over the term, and how media came to occupy their own communication niches: Webboard for diffuse class-wide communication; Internet Relay Chat more to named others but still for general communication across the class; and e-mail primarily for intrateam communication. Face-to-face interaction, occurring only during a short on-campus session, appears to have had a catalytic effect on social and emotional exchanges. Results suggest the need to structure exchanges to balance class-wide sharing of ideas with subgroup interactions that facilitate project completion, and to provide media that support these two modes of interaction.  相似文献   

16.
Electronic data interchange (EDI) provides means for interorganizational communication, creates network externalities, requires an advanced information technology (IT) infrastructure, and relies on standards. In the diffusion of such innovations, institutional involvement is imperative. Such institutions contain governmental agencies, national and global standardization organizations, local government, and nonprofit private organizations like industry associations. The last type of organizations we call intermediating institutions. They intermediate or coordinate ("inscribe") the activities of a group of would-be adopters. Unfortunately, little is known of how these organizations shape the EDI diffusion trajectory. In this article we examine one specific type of intermediating organizations?industry associations?and how they advanced the EDI diffusion process in the grocery sectors of Hong Kong, Denmark and Finland. We identify six institutional measures, placed into a matrix formed by the mode of involvement (influence vs. regulation) and the type of diffusion force (supply push vs. demand pull), that can be mobilized to further the EDI diffusion. Industry associations were found to be active users of all these measures to varying degrees. Their role was critical especially in knowledge building, knowledge deployment, and standard setting. Furthermore, institutional involvement varied due to policy and cultural contingencies and power dependencies.  相似文献   

17.
The increasing prospects of digital piracy has prompted the perceived need by electronic publishers to adopt technical systems of protection, and governments to reform their copyright laws. This article is a preliminary study of the management of intellectual property by electronic publishers, defined as those involved in the production of online databases, and CD-ROMs. It focuses on three main issues: (1) how electronic publishers view the increasing threat of piracy; (2) the methods of protection employed to protect intellectual property in digital format; and (3) the importance of technological protection of intellectual property in electronic publications. The analysis is based on a sample of 23 UK electronic publishers. The interviews revealed an interesting assortment of protection methods and did not show that technological protection was a preferred way. Instead, the means of protection, in addition to copyright law, comprised niche markets, pricing, trust, bad publicity, and nontechnical and technical means.  相似文献   

18.
Prof. SUN Changpu from the CAS Institute of Theoretical Physics and coworkers from University of Basel in Switzerland have worked out a way --at least in theory --to split a beam of molecules according to their chirality. The technique involves passing the molecules through three different laser beams and is similar to the famous Stern-Gerlach effect, whereby a beam of atoms passing through a magnetic field is split in two according to the atoms' spin states (Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 130403).  相似文献   

19.
Long-standing conflict between domain name registrants and trademark holders prompted the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) to create a global, mandatory arbitration procedure known as the Uniform Dispute Resolution Policy (UDRP). The UDRP has been used in 2166 cases involving 3938 domain names as of 1 November 2000. The policy gives the initiator of a complaint, generally a trademark holder, the right to choose which ICANN-accredited dispute resolution service provider (RSP) will handle the case. During the preparation of the UDRP,some feared that complainant selection would lead to "forum shopping" that might bias the results. This article performs a statistical assessment of the forum-shopping thesis and finds support for it. There are statistically significant differences in the various RSPs' propensity to take away names from defendants; there are also major differences in the number of cases brought to each RSP. RSPs who take away names have the larger share of cases. The study examines other variables that might explain differences in market share, such as price, the plaintiff's nationality, or the time taken to decide a case. It finds that nationality and time also are correlated with market share. The study concludes that shopping for a favorable outcome is an important factor in the UDRP.  相似文献   

20.
Prof. Raymond C.K. Chen, a neuropsychologist with the CAS Institute of Psychology, has made novel progress in his studies of schizophrenia. His work has been reported by a recent issue of Behavioural Neurology.  相似文献   

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