共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Boonlert Supadhiloke 《亚洲交流杂志》2015,25(2):135-161
In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias. 相似文献
2.
Jason Turcotte Klarize Medenilla Karen Villaseñor Saara Lampwalla 《Communication Research Reports》2017,34(3):191-200
As U.S. news outlets grapple with the challenges of delivering news in a digital era, journalists cover elections with tighter deadlines and fewer resources. Consequently, we are seeing an explosion in coverage of polls, which require little original reporting and attract readers through their “horse race” appeal. As the number of polls increases, news professionals are culling data from a wider spectrum of sources that vary in methodology and credibility. What remains unclear is how effective the news media are in providing polling context in their online coverage that is less limited by the space and time constraints of more traditional mediums. Utilizing the 2016 U.S. primaries, this exploratory study examines online news articles focused on polls to evaluate the quality of digital coverage across national news outlets.
Keywords: Campaigns and Elections; Content Analysis; Journalism; News Media; Political Communication 相似文献
3.
This study investigates the perceived impact of election polls,focusing on the hotly contested 2000 U.S. presidential election.Survey data from 558 individuals gathered during the final daysof the election campaign are analyzed to examine beliefs thatthe polls greatly affect other voters, general views of pollsas good or bad for the country, beliefs about whether pollstersinfluence their results to come out a certain way, and supportfor banning election-night projections. Results indicate thatmost respondents felt the polls had no influence on themselveswhile still affecting others. Respondents exhibiting these ‘third-person-effect’perceptions were significantly more likely than others to believethat election polls are a bad thing for the country. Negativeperceptions of polls and beliefs that pollsters try to influenceresults were also related to general distrust of the news media.Negative views of polls in turn were associated with increasedsupport for prohibiting election-night projections. In general,the results illustrate the dependency of negative views aboutpolling on fears of untoward effects on voters, in particularthe fear that polls and election projections might lend supportto candidates opposed by the respondent. 相似文献
4.
Shaiko Ronald G.; Dwyre Diana; O'Gorman Mark; Stonecash Jeffrey M.; Vike James 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1991,3(1):86-99
Non-response bias is of great concern in pre-election politicaltelephone polls, where the number of callbacks is far less thanin most academic and government studies. The fewer number ofcallbacks raises the issue of whether there might be a greaternon-response bias problem in such surveys. Given the publicimportance of political polls, there is a need to know somethingabout this. The general problem faced in trying to assess thisissue is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to obtaininformation on non-respondents. There is an additional problemwith political polling in that there are few public studiesabout non-response in such polling. This study assesses non-responsebias for five pre-election political polls which used four callbackseach. The study is unique in that information is available forall respondents and non-respondents. The initial list of individualsto be called was taken from a computerized voter registrationlist which contains the age and sex of each registrant. Thenon-response bias associated with not-at-homes, bad numbers,and refusals is assessed. The results indicate that bad numbersand not-at-homes have different bias effects from refusals,but they offset each other to some degree in a situation oflimited callbacks. More callbacks may reduce bias associatedwith not-at-homes, but not the bias associated with bad numbersand refusals. We usually do not know how biased nonresponseis, but it is seldom a good assumption that nonresponse is unbiased(Flower, 1984, p. 51–2 相似文献
5.
This article deals with the quality of political poll reportsin the Swiss print media. A content analysis of 31 differentpapers reveals that the methodological information given innewspaper articles is more elaborate when papers use variousdevices such as information boxes. When polls are reported thatother papers or organizations financed, methodological informationis scarce. Beyond such formal criteria, a case study shows thataspects of measurement and specification errors must also betaken into account, which are highly relevant in the conceptualizationof polls and within the press-polling connection. Consequently,two different practical suggestions for improvement are outlined:whereas the first is directed at the press and stresses thegraphic possibilities of the print media and the role of newsagencies as important distribution channels, the second refersto pollsters who have to maintain intellectual quality criteriaand can contribute substantially to the improvement of mediareporting by implementing different disclosure practices intheir tables and reports. 相似文献
6.
This article examines the performance of the pre-election pollsin Portugal since 1991 and attempts to determine some of thecommon causes of poll inaccuracy in both National Assembly andEuropean Parliament elections. The analysis of poll resultsin this period reveals marked improvements in poll accuracysince 1991, which have brought it to levels that, today, arecomparable to those found in nations where the practice of bothsurvey research and opinion polling is longer and more established.No evidence of a systematic bias against any of the major partiesis found, and sources of error are congruent with those foundelsewhere. However, large errors remain the norm in polls pertainingto European Parliament elections, suggesting a shared inabilityof Portuguese polling organizations in dealing appropriatelywith the problems caused by low turnout and ‘landslide’elections. 相似文献
7.
《Behavioral & Social Sciences Librarian》2013,32(4):77-80
Until now researchers interested in knowing what public opinion data existed on a particular topic had a problem. There was no single source of information about survey work being done in this country. Now for the first time the American Public Opinion Index collects all the questions asked of the general public in national, state and local polls and arranges them in a topical index so that researchers will have a comprehensive and thoroughly cross listed reference for finding polling information that might be useful for their work. 相似文献
8.
Democratic government has always assumed the need for an informedcitizenry, but modern polling methodology is giving citizensin the United States more information than they sometimes wantor expect. Contrary to popular opinion, this unexpected abundanceof information about the voters does not threaten the systemand may even help it work better. The need for information isespecially acute in the American two-party system where coalitionbuilding takes place in partisan activity before the electionrather than after as in the case of European multi-party systems.The weakening of the parties and the shift of some of theirfunctions to direct popular control only increases the needfor all kinds of information, ranging in scope from candidatesexual behaviour to public opinion data, and forces a new andnot always wanted role upon the mass media. 相似文献
9.
Hyunjung Kim 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(3):303-324
This study explores how the perceived effect and bias of reported election poll results are associated with voters' attitudes toward restrictions on polling reports and their political participation intention through emotions. A telephone survey using a representative sample of South Korean voters (N = 597) was conducted prior to the 2012 South Korean presidential election. Results indicate that the third-person perception of reported election poll results was indirectly linked to support for restrictions on polling reports through anxiety. For supporters of Mr. Jae In Moon, the nominee of the liberal Democratic United Party, who was reported to be behind in the polls, the hostile media perception was indirectly associated with support for restrictions through anxiety and directly associated with political participation intention. Implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
10.
Forecast errors in preelectoral polls are common. Since theNicaraguan Election in 1990, a common assumption is that wheredemocratic practices are not equal to those of the developedcountries (authoritarian, in transition, etc.), the errors inpredicting electoral outcomes with the help of pre-electoralpolls result mostly from contextual effects related to the authoritariannature of the political systems. Forecast errors in developeddemocracies have been explained by flaws in sampling (GreatBritain), last minute changes in preferences (Spain, UnitedStates, and France) and a social desirability bias in the UnitedStates. The intention of this paper is to show that in Mexicoboth the accuracy and the sources of error in predicting electoralresults are very similar to those confronted by pollsters elsewhere:mostly sampling and allocation of nonrespondents and those whoare undecided. An extensive data set of pre-electoral pollsconducted in Mexico shows an average error in the order of 3–5percentage points. Some of this error could be related to sociallydesirable answers derived from contextual effects, but thiseffect is small and must not be generalized. 相似文献
11.
Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates. 相似文献
12.
The first polling organization in Eastern Europe was set upin the late 1950s in Warsaw. It did not happen accidentally;Poland had a long tradition of social research reaching backto the early 1920s. After the Stalinist period of the early1950s these traditions were continued by a new generation ofresearchers. This paper analyzes the development of opinionresearch centers and progress in the area of methodology. Twoproblems, very important for public opinion research in Polandas well as in the other East European countries, are stressedin the article: the complex relations between opinion pollingand political circumstances, and the scientific debates focusedon the reliability and accuracy of the survey findings. 相似文献
13.
Social media rumors are improvised and expressive forms of public opinion that especially arise under uncertain sociopolitical situations. This study utilizes early rumor studies as theoretical framework for textual analysis of Twitter public opinion. A content and semantic network analysis of Twitter messages spread during Korean saber rattling in 2013 was conducted for understanding public opinion in an uncertain context. The results show that, while non-rumor narratives focus on policy-level responses to the threat situation in a similar manner to institutionalized opinion polling, rumors are less concerned with official responses, instead reflective of hegemonic tensions between anti-leftwing political sentiments and the counteractive accounts. Some rumors reveal the public's coping with fears in the form of humor, guesswork, or wishes. Online rumor analysis helps understand how the society's collective memories interact with the current situational uncertainty in shaping public opinions and sentiments. 相似文献
14.
In his 1987 presidential address to the annual AAPOR meeting,J. Ronald Milavsky stated that ‘we need to start payingmore attention to the public's estimate of the worth of surveyresearch’ (1987, p. 447), but the literature shows littleresponse to that call. Historically, broad-stroked conclusionsabout public attitudes have been positive, but the data arescanty and there has been little analysis of the structure ofopinions. In this study, we take a step in examining what thepublic thinks about how we know what it is thinking. In additionto standard direct questions about the accuracy and frequencyof polls, we developed indirect measures designed to tap attitudesabout polling as a mechanism in policy representation. Our evidencesuggests that poll confidence is multi-dimensional and thatthe indirect questions provide insights not apparent when peopleare asked directly about polling. We suggest additional researchpaths to explore the nature, sources, and implications of bothpositive and negative dimensions to attitudes about public policypolls. 相似文献
15.
Stephen D. Perry 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(1):1-2
A consistent news frame that deligitmizes and depicts most social protests as "police vs. protesters" has been identified in studies of news coverage of social movements. This study used an experimental design to examine the extent to which photographs and prior attitudes toward protests and protesters in general contribute to previously identified framing effects of protest news. Results indicated that for the protest issue of interest evaluations of the protest and protesters were more negative when photos depicting higher levels of conflict were shown. The amount of conflict shown in the photos did not affect evaluations of the protest and protesters when the issue was of less interest to participants. Additionally, participants who had more positive prior attitudes toward protesting in general were more likely to identify with the protesters in the stimulus story and to perceive that the protest was more effective than were those with more negative prior attitudes. Findings suggest the need to address possible nuances associated with the visuals alone and to incorporate prior attitudes when examining effects of news coverage of protests. 相似文献
16.
检索了400余种学术期刊和30家出版社有关旅游方面的图书120余册,发现这些书刊对字母"ü"的拼写错误极为严重,表现形式为或以v代ü,或以u代ü.文中探讨了这些错误出现的根源,提出了杜绝字母"ü"拼写错误的措施. 相似文献
17.
Michelle J. Gibeault 《College & Undergraduate Libraries》2015,22(2):209-223
This study details a trial in which three undergraduate library instruction sessions were conducted on a class set of iPads in a SCALE-UP classroom. The iPads suggested strong potential as replacements for desktop computers and demonstrated support for key active learning approaches: instant polling, content sharing, and navigation of Webpages and databases. The SCALE-UP classroom has made notable contributions in promoting undergraduate learning, and its advantages were found to be applicable to library instruction. The pedagogy that the space is designed to reinforce, collaborative learning segments interspersed with lecture components, seemed to promote student engagement in library instruction sessions. 相似文献
18.
Adam E. Haigh 《Behavioral & Social Sciences Librarian》2013,32(1):19-31
ABSTRACTLibrarians play a key role in undergraduate research yet there is infrequent collaboration using this key group of stakeholders in assigning and researching term papers. This case study reviews the impact of faculty and librarian collaboration in assigning and completing research projects in two upper level political science courses. Library instruction was primarily delivered—once at the beginning and then again in the middle of the semester. The research demonstrates how with active learning techniques, audience polling, and encouraging class participation from the students, our goal was to improve the quality of sources and help the students become better independent researchers. 相似文献
19.
A relatively fast development has already taken place in the academic research of the Chinese special or technical secondary school libraries,but there were only 10 research papers published on the subject before 1980.with an annual averrage of less than one.During a period of ten years from 1981-1990,however,the number of papers had gone up from 10 to 127.Still,there were problems to solve,such as,the dispersedness of content of the papers and the periodicals that had published them,and furthermore,key periodicals had not been taken shape.The author suggests that the ralated publications should start a special column called the "Special or Technical Secondary School Libraries"or established oneself special key periodicals so as to promote the academic exchanges.illus.1 tab.4 相似文献
20.
本文借助美国学者部分研究成果,说明和分析了埃米尔·胡尔亚在政治民调演进史上的开拓性贡献。胡尔亚在对大量民调数据和原始资料进行鉴别、修正和分析的基础上,于1932年首次将民意调查用来跟踪选民情绪,确定民主党所要采取的运动策略,总统竞选破天荒地第一次在日益成型的民意测验指导下进行,富兰克林·罗斯福也成为把民意测验运用于竞选运动的第一位总统候选人。 相似文献