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1.
The paper addresses two propositions: (1) that by publishingnews stories about the electoral strength of parties or candidates,the mass media contribute to shaping the voters' expectationsabout the likely outcome of an upcoming election; (2) that theseexpectations in turn stimulate a bandwagon effect, i.e. theyinfluence vote choice to the advantage of the apparent futurewinner of the election. Analyzing media content and survey datagathered during the campaign for the first all-German nationalelection of December 2, 1990, it can be shown that (1) interestin the media's political reporting as well as interpersonalpolitical communication contributed significantly to convertingvoters to the view of the election outcome that was constantlypresented by the mass media; (2) this belief in turn causedparticularly unsophisticated independent voters to vote forthe apparent winner of the election. Referring to the conceptualframework of ‘low information rationality’, thisbandwagon effect is interpreted as ‘majority-led proxyvoting’. Since public opinion polls play the key rolein its definition, the media portrayal of the competing parties'electoral prospects can be assumed to be fairly accurate, sothat voters relying on such information in casting their voteare not misled. 相似文献
2.
Boonlert Supadhiloke 《亚洲交流杂志》2015,25(2):135-161
In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias. 相似文献
3.
Uncommitted voters in pre-election polls include both thosewho have not yet made their choices (undecided voters) and thosewho have already made their choices but do not disclose them,for any reason (undeclared voters). The voting patterns of theseuncommitted voters are critical, especially in cases in whichthe size of the group is greater than the gap between the twoleading runners in an electoral race. In the present study,discriminant analysis was applied to predict the voting patternsof the uncommitted voters in two different election situations:the 1992 presidential election in the state of North Carolina,USA, and the 1992 presidential election in South Korea. Theadjusted percentage breakdown, which was created after discriminantanalysis assigned the uncommitted voters for each candidate,appeared noticeably closer to the actual results than the simplepercentage breakdown with the uncommitted voters excluded fromthe analysis. Discriminant analysis was also applied to predictthe effect of one candidate's possible withdrawal from electionswith several candidates. By treating the former supporters ofthe withdrawing candidate as another uncommitted group, discriminantanalysis provided a new percentage breakdown among the remainingcandidates; the result was consistent with experts' intuitiveprediction. 相似文献
4.
Hyunjung Kim 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(3):303-324
This study explores how the perceived effect and bias of reported election poll results are associated with voters' attitudes toward restrictions on polling reports and their political participation intention through emotions. A telephone survey using a representative sample of South Korean voters (N = 597) was conducted prior to the 2012 South Korean presidential election. Results indicate that the third-person perception of reported election poll results was indirectly linked to support for restrictions on polling reports through anxiety. For supporters of Mr. Jae In Moon, the nominee of the liberal Democratic United Party, who was reported to be behind in the polls, the hostile media perception was indirectly associated with support for restrictions through anxiety and directly associated with political participation intention. Implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
5.
This paper examines the results of studies in Britain and Franceon the views of the two peoples towards public opinion surveys: — their experience of surveys — attitudes towards the concept of sample surveys — the accuracy of sample surveys — the publication of polls during election campaigns — exposure to news information — interest in survey data The results in the two countries were, to a substantial degree,similar and showed an underlying positive attitude towards publicopinion surveys. There are, however, a number of points to bearin mind, where more public relations and more public informationis required to improve public awareness of, and public acceptanceof, opinion surveys. 相似文献
6.
Although many studies have investigated citizens' attitudes toward polls and the political consequences, there have been no studies examining the effects of social network site (SNS) users' opinion environments on their poll skepticism. Based on prior studies on poll skepticism, we examine the relationship between perceived SNS opinion environments, poll skepticism, perceived concerns over the negative influence of the polls, and voting intention in an upcoming election. Using the survey data of the 2012 South Korean General Election, this study found that if the published polls are against respondents' political position, their homophilous SNS opinion environments promote poll skepticism, and augmented poll skepticism leads to concerns over the negative influence of the polls on other voters, which in turn increases voting intention. 相似文献
7.
An examination of the news images of US presidential candidatessuggests that journalists portray candidates in ways consistentwith their position in the race. Strong candidates were generallygiven strong news images and weak candidates were saddled withweak images. Significantly, this pattern held also for the samecandidate if his position in the race changed. In 1988 Bush'snews image went from weak to strong when he surged ahead inthe polls during the general election. Such news images appearto affect voters' images of the candidates: to some degree,voters accept journalists' portrayals of the candidates. 相似文献
8.
Elina Lindgren 《Mass Communication and Society》2018,21(4):425-449
Parties often frame their election pledges with value-laden words such as freedom and equality, and it is well known that this can influence voters’ support for policies. However, research is not conclusive about why as of yet. This article adds to common explanations of value-framing effects by proposing a linguistic explanation to how citizens are influenced by value words in election pledges. Drawing on what linguistic theory says about persuasive words, this article hypothesizes that value-laden words elicit different beliefs about policy content, beyond what has actually been pledged. To support this assertion, a survey experiment (N = 739) shows that such words do provoke different beliefs about policies and that this, in turn, influences the extent to which individuals support the policies. The findings have implications for representative democracy, as they indicate that voters’ outspoken support for policy pledges do not necessarily reflect their true policy preferences. 相似文献
9.
About 1,450 voters in the 1993 mayorial election in Jerusalemmade predictions about election outcomes and stated their preferencefor one of the two candidates. Strong wishful thinking effectswere found, predictions varying in a linear trend as a functionof the direction and intensity of preference. Half of the respondentswere promised a substantial monetary reward if their predictionswould be accurate (motivational remedy). Knowledge about theresults of the most recent polls was tested, and the predictionsmade by accurate poll respondents (14.7 percent of the sample)were compared to those of non-accurate poll respondents (cognitiveremedy). It was hypothesized that both remedies would reducewishful thinking (i.e. reduce the differences in predictionamong groups differing in preference). Significant interactioneffects indicated that both remedies reduced wishful thinkingsomewhat. However, these effects were of very small magnitudecompared to the high magnitude of the wishful thinking effects,and the overall intensity of wishful thinking remained unchanged.Differences between level of significance and effect magnitudeswere discussed, focusing on implications for theoretical versusapplied social research. It was also found that non-accuratepoll respondents demonstrated a wishful thinking-like effectin their reported memory of the results of the polls, whichwere made public just one or two days previously. 相似文献
10.
Kenneth L. Hacker Max Scott Lori Howl Robert Steiner 《Communication Research Reports》2013,30(2):138-146
This article presents a content analysis of three computer‐mediated communication (CMC) networks used for political discussion during the 1992 Presidential election campaign. Data indicate that the main use of computer networks in the campaign was to assert personal opinions about the candidates, issues, and the election. Other uses were talking about one's own life and experiences, telling others what they should be doing, and posting information for others to read. Significant differences were found between the three campaigns for uses of these computer networks. The Clinton network was used more than the other two for posting information. The Perot network was used more than the others for asserting opinions. This study indicates that voters have specific functions for the use of computer networks as new channels of political communication. Future research should examine what groups of voters use these networks the most and how such use affects candidate image formation. Suggestions are offered for the study of campaign computer lists in the upcoming presidential election of 1996. 相似文献
11.
本文梳理归纳了负面竞选广告相关研究的切入角度和结论,总结存在的分歧,指明未来研究的方向。综述发现,负面竞选广告研究大都基于西方文化背景和传统媒体,广告的使用受到候选人在任与否、民意支持度、所属政党、竞选阶段和文化的影响;广告发挥了候选人所预期的效果,但也可能产生反弹效果。此外,负面竞选广告对政治参与是促进还是抑制作用,已有研究结果尚存分歧。 相似文献
12.
Shaiko Ronald G.; Dwyre Diana; O'Gorman Mark; Stonecash Jeffrey M.; Vike James 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1991,3(1):86-99
Non-response bias is of great concern in pre-election politicaltelephone polls, where the number of callbacks is far less thanin most academic and government studies. The fewer number ofcallbacks raises the issue of whether there might be a greaternon-response bias problem in such surveys. Given the publicimportance of political polls, there is a need to know somethingabout this. The general problem faced in trying to assess thisissue is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to obtaininformation on non-respondents. There is an additional problemwith political polling in that there are few public studiesabout non-response in such polling. This study assesses non-responsebias for five pre-election political polls which used four callbackseach. The study is unique in that information is available forall respondents and non-respondents. The initial list of individualsto be called was taken from a computerized voter registrationlist which contains the age and sex of each registrant. Thenon-response bias associated with not-at-homes, bad numbers,and refusals is assessed. The results indicate that bad numbersand not-at-homes have different bias effects from refusals,but they offset each other to some degree in a situation oflimited callbacks. More callbacks may reduce bias associatedwith not-at-homes, but not the bias associated with bad numbersand refusals. We usually do not know how biased nonresponseis, but it is seldom a good assumption that nonresponse is unbiased(Flower, 1984, p. 51–2 相似文献
13.
《Qualitative Research Reports in Communication》2013,14(1):38-45
The purpose of this study was to learn why Minnesota residents participated in the presidential caucus on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. The research team interviewed a total of 37 registered Republican (n = 15) and Democrat (n = 22) Minnesota voters from a mid-sized Midwestern community on caucus night. Open-ended, semi-structured interviews elicited the reasons voters said they participated in the caucus. Using grounded theory, several categories of responses emerged from data including duty and responsibility, making a difference, special election, participation, supporting a candidate, and concern for the country. The results show the majority of participants were motivated to take part because they viewed it as a duty and a responsibility as citizens of a democracy. Participants did not use the caucus as a forum for discussion and dialogue surrounding the election, but as an outlet to achieve political efficacy. 相似文献
14.
Jih-Hsuan Lin 《亚洲交流杂志》2016,26(3):278-297
This study collected data before and after the 2012 Taiwanese presidential election to examine active and passive Facebook (FB) participation on subsequent attitudinal and behavioral outcomes. Based on the differential gains model, the results showed that active engagement in FB political activities before the election directly affected offline political participation after the election. However, this direct effect occurred for first-time voters (20–24 years old) but not for the 25 and older generation. Passive exposure to politically related FB activities before the election indirectly affected offline political participation after the election and voting behavior through perceptions of FB use on political engagement. These indirect effects occurred in both first-time voters and in the rest of the voters. The results extend the differential gains model to social network sites (SNSs) and suggest that FB participation is another form of political participation among the younger generation that may serve as a gateway to motivate first-time voters to become more engaged in political participation. In addition to active discussion, passive exposure to politically related activities within FB networks indirectly contributes to voting and offline participation, expanding the current differential gains model. 相似文献
15.
This study examined two levels of media agenda effects on aggregatepublic opinion from different news sources. The effects wereinvestigated immediately and cumulatively. Content analysisdata from the 2000 U.S. presidential election coverage by fournational news organizations were related to the Gallup pre-electionpoll standings of each candidate. Regression analyses foundthat both the salience of a candidate and the salience of theattributes of a candidate cumulatively, but not immediately,influenced his standing in the polls. An analysis of news sourcessupported the finding that the two levels of agenda-settingeffects seemed mostly cumulative rather than immediate. Newsfrom different sources, however, tended to have effects of differentdegrees and sometimes different directions on candidate pollstandings. Cumulative effects of candidate salience on aggregateopinion change were found for non-partisan and neutral newssources—reporters, poll reporting and public documents—whereasthe effects of candidate attribute salience mostly came frompartisan sources—the candidate himself and members ofthe competing political party. Possible political implicationsof these findings are discussed. 相似文献
16.
Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. 相似文献
17.
《Government Information Quarterly》2022,39(4):101658
Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies between polls and outcomes at several major elections and referendums, stemming from decreased participation in polls and an increasingly volatile electorate. This calls for new ways to measure public support for political parties. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring the popularity of election candidates on social media using Machine Learning-based Natural Language Processing techniques. The method is based on detecting voting intentions in the data. This is a considerable advance upon earlier work using automatic sentiment analysis. We evaluate the method both intrinsically on a set of hand-labelled social media posts, and extrinsically – by forecasting daily election polls. In the extrinsic evaluation, we analyze data from the 2016 US presidential election, and find that voting intentions measured from social media provide significant additional predictive value for forecasting daily polls. Thus, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to interpolate polls both spatially and temporally, thus providing reliable, continuous and fine-grained information about public opinion on current political issues. 相似文献
18.
Erica Weintraub Austin Rebecca Van de Vord Bruce E. Pinkleton Evan Epstein 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(4):420-436
Although scholars have long indicated concern regarding disaffected young voters, the 2004 presidential election tallied record turnout among this age group. This study explored how and why celebrity-endorsed, get-out-the-vote campaigns may have helped to persuade young voters aged 18 to 24 to participate in an election campaign by examining campaign influence on individual decision-making factors. During the fall semester of 2004, a convenience sample of 305 college students from introductory general education classes completed surveys assessing their political efficacy, involvement, complacency, and apathy. Findings indicated that receptivity to celebrity spokespeople predicted lower levels of complacency and higher levels of self-efficacy. Complacency had independent effects on involvement and self-efficacy. The results therefore suggest that these campaigns can potentially influence positive change in political engagement of the younger citizenry. 相似文献
19.
The televised debates in the 2016 presidential election took place between two controversial candidates, Hillary Clinton and her opponent, Donald Trump, who faced a deeply divided electorate of highly opinioned voters that had already decided on their supported candidates. How did viewing the debates influence them? Would the debates reinforce their existing opinion, or provide them with useful information about the candidates? Drawing on Davison’s third-person effect hypothesis, this study aims to shed light on the question of how viewing the debates influences voters relative to others in the era of social media. The study focuses on the need for orientation as a predictor of debate exposure and the behavioral consequences of debate exposure for electoral engagement on social media. Findings show that partisans are not impacted by viewing the debates, but respondents perceived Independents to be most vulnerable. Further, need for orientation moderated the relationship between debate exposure and perceived effects of the debates on self, which prompted respondents to mobilize support for the candidate of their choice and to vote for their supported candidates. 相似文献
20.
Annis Lee Adams 《Public Services Quarterly》2020,16(2):95-100
Abstract2020 is an election year in the United States. As we know from both past elections and the current election season, mudslinging, hyperbole, misinformation campaigns, and fake news proliferate the media landscape. Finding and recognizing reliable, accurate, nonpartisan election information can be challenging. Fortunately, several websites offer reliable, accurate, nonpartisan, and balanced information on the election and about voting. Some sources include information on how to register to vote, who can register to vote, and explain voting rights. Other sources provide links to or compile information on candidate voting records, where candidates get their funding, where they stand on issues, and fact check their statements. And, still others allow voters to get personalized information about what will be on their specific ballots, such as all the candidates running for local, state, and national offices, as well as bond measures, propositions, and other ballot initiatives. The reviews included in this issue’s column comprise a sampling of reliable election websites spanning the various election topics mentioned above. Librarians can feel confident recommending these sites to their patrons looking for accurate, balanced, reliable election and voting information. 相似文献