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1.
Hyunjung Kim 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(3):303-324
This study explores how the perceived effect and bias of reported election poll results are associated with voters' attitudes toward restrictions on polling reports and their political participation intention through emotions. A telephone survey using a representative sample of South Korean voters (N = 597) was conducted prior to the 2012 South Korean presidential election. Results indicate that the third-person perception of reported election poll results was indirectly linked to support for restrictions on polling reports through anxiety. For supporters of Mr. Jae In Moon, the nominee of the liberal Democratic United Party, who was reported to be behind in the polls, the hostile media perception was indirectly associated with support for restrictions through anxiety and directly associated with political participation intention. Implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
2.
Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. 相似文献
3.
Jennifer Hoewe 《Communication Research Reports》2016,33(3):247-252
This study examined political journalists’ definitions of public opinion and how these definitions influence the structure of political news stories. After considering prior conceptualizations of public opinion, a scale of two distinct definitions of public opinion was created, consisting of the optimist’s and the pessimist’s definitions. Using a survey of political journalists in the United States, these public opinion definitions were significant predictors of the use of particular sources in political news stories. Importantly, the two definitions had opposite influences on the use of opinion polls, shedding light on the discrepancy in use and perception of poll results in political news. 相似文献
4.
论述日本内阁府长达60余年的科学民意调查及对我国的4点启示:①随着科学的发展,科学民意调查的必要性不断增强;②科学与社会的视角是了解真实科学民意的基本视角,而非固定模式、固定内容的调查设计,以日常生活为切入点的设问方式,有利于及时反映民意、挖掘真实民意;③公民科学兴趣度是科学民意的重要内容;④科学民意调查是科技政策出台、实施的重要情报依据。 相似文献
5.
《Government Information Quarterly》2022,39(4):101658
Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies between polls and outcomes at several major elections and referendums, stemming from decreased participation in polls and an increasingly volatile electorate. This calls for new ways to measure public support for political parties. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring the popularity of election candidates on social media using Machine Learning-based Natural Language Processing techniques. The method is based on detecting voting intentions in the data. This is a considerable advance upon earlier work using automatic sentiment analysis. We evaluate the method both intrinsically on a set of hand-labelled social media posts, and extrinsically – by forecasting daily election polls. In the extrinsic evaluation, we analyze data from the 2016 US presidential election, and find that voting intentions measured from social media provide significant additional predictive value for forecasting daily polls. Thus, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to interpolate polls both spatially and temporally, thus providing reliable, continuous and fine-grained information about public opinion on current political issues. 相似文献
6.
This paper combines the persuasion knowledge model (PKM) and priming theory to investigate the effects of different appeal types in negative political ads on voters' cognitive responses and candidate responses, and explore the moderating effect of an important candidate-related variable: poll ranking. The results indicate that negative advertising based on rational appeals is more beneficial to candidates who lag in the polls. However, negative ads based on emotional appeals generate better responses from voters when used by poll leaders. These effects are observed regardless of whether the race is between an incumbent and a challenger or two challengers. 相似文献
7.
The news media’s use of polls is by no means the special preserve of democracies. Using the case of Chinese government’s official medium (i.e. the People’s Daily), this study set out to assess how poll results are communicated to the public in China by examining the presentation of methodological information in its poll stories, and how its web counterpart, the People’s Daily Online website, differs in its coverage of polls from a technical point of view. It then examined the outlets’ interpretations of poll results and the media logic the coverage implies in comparison with the political logic that shapes poll reporting in China. Further critical discourse analysis reveals the use of authoritarian populist rhetoric as a discursive strategy in both outlets’ representation of public opinion. Compared with the print outlet, the online outlet showed a more marked inclination to describe a certain class as ‘the people’ in anti-elite rhetoric. 相似文献
8.
The paper discusses some of the issues complicating opinionresearch in the GDR and considers the effectiveness of a numberof techniques as well as the degree to which they can yieldreliable results. One of the main problem areas is the previouslyinstitutionalized character of public attitude studies duringSED–rule and their role in the sociopolitical advancementof socialist society. Given the enormous shift in voting intentionbefore the first gerneral election in 58 years on 18 March 1990,a comparison of trend data taken from a number of polls conductedbetween the end of November 1989 to 17 March 1990 clearly indicatesthe unstable situation at the outset and subsequent shift inattitudes toward political alternatives. It is argued that overall,poll results were successful in presenting a snapshot of viewsas they were at the time of the interview, and that as the electiondrew nearer, the trend gave a clear indication of the likelyoutcome. 相似文献
9.
Francis L. F. Lee 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(1):87-110
This study ties the third-person effect phenomenon to social comparison research by positing that a downward comparison is made when people regard “others” as more influenced than themselves by persuasive messages. A likely consequence of the downward comparison is prevention behavior, which refers to the attempt to avoid undesirable outcomes. Hence we can expect a negative relationship between perceived influence of messages on others and actual influence of the messages on self. This negative relationship should be particularly likely to exist among less efficacious individuals. Utilizing a survey experiment (N = 800), which examined both the perceived and actual influence of opinion poll findings on people's issue opinions, this study shows that the prevention effect does not exist across the board, but there is enough evidence showing its existence among less efficacious people on certain issues. 相似文献
10.
Lars Willnat 《亚洲交流杂志》2013,23(2):47-67
This study analyses the impact of perceptions of the opinions of others on political outspokenness in Hong Kong. Based on the results of two representative telephone surveys conducted in Hong Kong in 1993 and 1995, the spiral of silence theory is tested in the context of public opinion regarding the Sino‐British dispute over Hong Kong's political future and the 1995 Legislative Council election. As hypothesized, respondents in both surveys were more willing to voice their political opinions publicly when they perceived the majority opinion to be on their side, or when they perceived a trend in support of their own political viewpoint. However, this effect was observed only for respondents who were not much concerned about either issue. People's political outspokenness was primarily boosted by higher issue salience, more exposure and attention to television news and news magazines, and higher political interest and efficacy. 相似文献
11.
The Internet continues to grow as an information and entertainment medium. Internet growth has implications for the news industry. Twenty-four hour news networks such as CNN and MSNBC regularly encourage viewers of their television programs to visit their Web sites. While visiting news Web sites, visitors are invited to participate in opinion polls. Unfortunately, these online opinion polls are not scientific and have little real news value. In spite of these limitations, news Web sites' Internet polls are often treated as serious topics in broadcast news discussions. This article examines media organizations' Internet online polls and critiques them as instances of symbolic representation and pseudo-events that have arisen largely out of the integration of print, broadcast, and Internet media. 相似文献
12.
《Government Information Quarterly》2023,40(2):101800
Digital healthcare is in the spotlight due to the prevailing COVID-19 situation. To get the deeper understanding of the healthcare consumers' adoption of e-government telemedicine service (EGTMS), the present research extends the unified model of e-government adoption (UMEGA) with perceived severity, self-efficacy, and political trust. The extended UMEGA model is empirically validated with 452 valid Indian healthcare consumers' responses. The findings reported that performance expectancy, perceived severity, effort expectancy, and perceived risk significantly influenced Indian healthcare consumers' attitudes towards EGTMS. Further political trust showed significant influence over social influence. However, social influence is observed as non-significant. Furthermore, attitude, political trust and facilitating conditions significantly influenced individuals' behavioral intentions towards EGTMS and observed significant influence of self-efficacy on effort expectancy. This is the first study that reveals the critical factors of Indian healthcare consumers' behavioral intention towards EGTMS. With the upsurge in e-government healthcare services, the outcomes of the study will benefit stakeholders such as governmental agencies, marketers, public administrators, and healthcare professionals as they provide suitable strategic recommendations to design and implement e-government telemedicine services. 相似文献
13.
This study examined two levels of media agenda effects on aggregatepublic opinion from different news sources. The effects wereinvestigated immediately and cumulatively. Content analysisdata from the 2000 U.S. presidential election coverage by fournational news organizations were related to the Gallup pre-electionpoll standings of each candidate. Regression analyses foundthat both the salience of a candidate and the salience of theattributes of a candidate cumulatively, but not immediately,influenced his standing in the polls. An analysis of news sourcessupported the finding that the two levels of agenda-settingeffects seemed mostly cumulative rather than immediate. Newsfrom different sources, however, tended to have effects of differentdegrees and sometimes different directions on candidate pollstandings. Cumulative effects of candidate salience on aggregateopinion change were found for non-partisan and neutral newssources—reporters, poll reporting and public documents—whereasthe effects of candidate attribute salience mostly came frompartisan sources—the candidate himself and members ofthe competing political party. Possible political implicationsof these findings are discussed. 相似文献
14.
Over the last few years, questions in the Australian polls aboutthe rate of immigration and the rate of Asian immigration havegenerated a remarkably wide range of response. While most ofthe polls conducted since 1984 suggest majority opposition tothe rate at which immigrants, including Asian immigrants, havebeen coming to Australia, other polls suggest majority support.Differences between the 1984 poll figures and some of the morerecent polls may reflect changes over time. Other polled differencesalmost certainly reflect differences in the way the questionswere worded. However, the most remarkable if least obvious causeof the difference seems to be the contexts in which the questionswere asked; more precisely, differences in the length and focusof the various questionnaires in which questions on immigrationwere embedded. Public opinion on the rate of immigration isnot only ‘soft’, it is created in the very attemptto measure it. Under these circumstances there is little pointin trying to isolate ‘majority opinion’ or in attemptingto establish which of the polls provides the most accurate reading.Where different readings are a product of differing contextsthey may be best understood in terms of competing conceptionsof what ‘public opinion’ itself is all about. 相似文献
15.
This article examines the performance of the pre-election pollsin Portugal since 1991 and attempts to determine some of thecommon causes of poll inaccuracy in both National Assembly andEuropean Parliament elections. The analysis of poll resultsin this period reveals marked improvements in poll accuracysince 1991, which have brought it to levels that, today, arecomparable to those found in nations where the practice of bothsurvey research and opinion polling is longer and more established.No evidence of a systematic bias against any of the major partiesis found, and sources of error are congruent with those foundelsewhere. However, large errors remain the norm in polls pertainingto European Parliament elections, suggesting a shared inabilityof Portuguese polling organizations in dealing appropriatelywith the problems caused by low turnout and ‘landslide’elections. 相似文献
16.
Boonlert Supadhiloke 《亚洲交流杂志》2015,25(2):135-161
In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias. 相似文献
17.
We may say that, up to now, surveys are the research methodmost commonly used and checked in social science and publicopinion studies. The predominant use of surveys in social researchis almost universal. This is demonstrated by the constant increaseof publications and research studies about or based on surveys,coming from all latitudes. But, above all, surveys and opinionpolls play an essential political role in the development ofour democracies. They have become the accepted way experts andlegislators can get to know what people think in general, howthey feel about specific topics and, finally, what their reactionis to political decisions. The measurement of public opinionby opinion polls is the main tool politicians have 相似文献
18.
Previous scholarship has argued that constructions of public opinion serve one of three dominant purposes: (1) to provide drama; (2) to promote particular strategic political interests; and (3) to symbolically legitimize the public's role in democracy. This paper analyzes media and legislator constructions of public opinion in the Clinton‐Lewinsky scandal. We assess the uses of public opinion and the purposes to which they were put, and particularly examine the use of different time frames in this discourse. Throughout the scandal, the public remained firmly ambivalent about President Clinton, with majorities supporting him remaining in office, even as they disapproved of his sexual relationship with Ms. Lewinsky. However, the media frequently emphasized the possibility that public might change, and this future orientation was joined to a strongly disapproving emphasis on public morality, rooted in a construction of past values. Later the media took present public opinion as a given, but political implications for the present and future framed the coverage. Once the scandal came to Congress, members of Congress usually recognized the public's support for President Clinton, but offered different interpretations of the roots of this support, its proper influence on Congress, and its future course. In assessing political consequences of their votes, legislators acted like investors involved in futures markets, and judged which opinions were likely to retain intensity in the coming months and years. Changing in a dynamic fashion in response to events, elites’ judgments, and polls, constructions of public opinion served multiple purposes, and were strongly tinged by assessments about the stability and basis of public opinion. The low use of present‐oriented time frames delegitimized citizen views. 相似文献
19.
Francis L. F. Lee 《亚洲交流杂志》2013,23(2):132-151
Opinion polling has become a common feature in news and public discourse in Hong Kong. This study examines how local newspapers cover popularity polls about the government and its leaders. It is hypothesized that newspapers adhering to different journalistic paradigms would cover such popularity polls differently in terms of the inclusion of methodological information, use of news sources, emphasis on negative versus positive results, treatment of polls conducted by different entities, and use of visual means of representations. A content analysis was conducted on four newspapers which represent the professionalism, populism, and propaganda paradigms, respectively. The results show that there are both similarities and differences in the poll coverage of the newspapers, with the differences mostly corresponding to the differences in journalistic paradigms. The results also point to a number of phenomena about news media in Hong Kong and poll reporting in general. 相似文献
20.
Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates. 相似文献