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1.
Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates. 相似文献
2.
Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attackfrom politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamentalcriticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome ofelections. This article investigates news media reporting ofpoll results and comments on public opinion research beforeFederal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findingsfor the quantity as well as the formal and substantial qualityof this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leadingdailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau(FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of publicopinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll storiesare a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency ofreports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g.on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formalquality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPORstandards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as inthe USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an electionoutcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationshipbetween liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting ofconservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research. 相似文献
3.
In his 1987 presidential address to the annual AAPOR meeting,J. Ronald Milavsky stated that ‘we need to start payingmore attention to the public's estimate of the worth of surveyresearch’ (1987, p. 447), but the literature shows littleresponse to that call. Historically, broad-stroked conclusionsabout public attitudes have been positive, but the data arescanty and there has been little analysis of the structure ofopinions. In this study, we take a step in examining what thepublic thinks about how we know what it is thinking. In additionto standard direct questions about the accuracy and frequencyof polls, we developed indirect measures designed to tap attitudesabout polling as a mechanism in policy representation. Our evidencesuggests that poll confidence is multi-dimensional and thatthe indirect questions provide insights not apparent when peopleare asked directly about polling. We suggest additional researchpaths to explore the nature, sources, and implications of bothpositive and negative dimensions to attitudes about public policypolls. 相似文献
4.
Hyunjung Kim 《Mass Communication and Society》2013,16(3):303-324
This study explores how the perceived effect and bias of reported election poll results are associated with voters' attitudes toward restrictions on polling reports and their political participation intention through emotions. A telephone survey using a representative sample of South Korean voters (N = 597) was conducted prior to the 2012 South Korean presidential election. Results indicate that the third-person perception of reported election poll results was indirectly linked to support for restrictions on polling reports through anxiety. For supporters of Mr. Jae In Moon, the nominee of the liberal Democratic United Party, who was reported to be behind in the polls, the hostile media perception was indirectly associated with support for restrictions through anxiety and directly associated with political participation intention. Implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
5.
本文借助美国学者部分研究成果,说明和分析了埃米尔·胡尔亚在政治民调演进史上的开拓性贡献。胡尔亚在对大量民调数据和原始资料进行鉴别、修正和分析的基础上,于1932年首次将民意调查用来跟踪选民情绪,确定民主党所要采取的运动策略,总统竞选破天荒地第一次在日益成型的民意测验指导下进行,富兰克林·罗斯福也成为把民意测验运用于竞选运动的第一位总统候选人。 相似文献
6.
Francis L. F. Lee 《亚洲交流杂志》2013,23(2):132-151
Opinion polling has become a common feature in news and public discourse in Hong Kong. This study examines how local newspapers cover popularity polls about the government and its leaders. It is hypothesized that newspapers adhering to different journalistic paradigms would cover such popularity polls differently in terms of the inclusion of methodological information, use of news sources, emphasis on negative versus positive results, treatment of polls conducted by different entities, and use of visual means of representations. A content analysis was conducted on four newspapers which represent the professionalism, populism, and propaganda paradigms, respectively. The results show that there are both similarities and differences in the poll coverage of the newspapers, with the differences mostly corresponding to the differences in journalistic paradigms. The results also point to a number of phenomena about news media in Hong Kong and poll reporting in general. 相似文献
7.
Do presidential candidates adapt their spot messages to the public's interests? This study conducts a computer content analysis of the texts of presidential television spots from 1952–2000. Public opinion poll data on the most important issues for voters, in each campaign, are used to structure the searches. The extent to which candidate spot messages conform to the public issue agenda is determined. Democrats’ and challengers’ spot messages are significantly more aligned with the public policy priorities than Republicans or incumbents. There is no significant difference between the correlations for winners versus losers. Finally, in 5 of the 13 elections there is a significant relationship between the issues covered by the two candidates. Clearly, some candidates are better at adapting their television messages to voters and in some elections the candidates tend to discuss the same policy issues. 相似文献
8.
The level of electoral mobilization, which is generally lowerin European elections as compared to first-order national elections,has been found to be lower among party adherents as well. Variationin the capability of political parties to mobilize their adherentsis mainly explained by the coincidence or not of European and(first-order) national elections (and of compulsory voting).Parties in government do not, as could have been expected onthe basis of earlier research, considerably worse in mobilizingtheir support, they did significantly better in the 1989 Europeanelections. And big parties were not found to be disadvantagedin getting their adherents to the European ballots—theydid equally well or even better than their smaller competitors.However, it is to be observed that big parties competing inEuropean elections cannot profit from the tremendous mobilizationaladvantages they have in first-order national elections. Andtheir adherents are, in European elections and in relative terms,more vulnerable to mobilizing appeals of competing parties thanthose of smaller parties. 相似文献
9.
For from being inevitable, as it may now appear, Clinton's victoryover Bush in the 1992 U.S. presidential election required aconfluence of several largely unforeseen developments. For one,though the U.S. economy was recovering, sluggishly, in late1991 and then more robustly in the election year itself, deeppublic pessimism about the economy's status developed nonetheless,leading to a vague but highly insistent call to ‘Do something!’In addition, the independent candidacy of Ross Perot becameespecially injurious to the Bush campaign, because theTexasbillionaire's attacks on the President appeared so disinterested.Perot cut deeply into the political and attitudinal groups thatin recent elections have been giving generally strong supportto Republican nominees. Despite these and other developmentswhich led to Bush's defeat just 20 months after he had appeareddominant politically, however, the underlying political alignmentof policy and social groups changed little in 1992. 相似文献
10.
This article examines the relationship between public opinionand the transformation of the Soviet Union. Results of an August1990 survey showed that the majority of adults supported democraticreform, but lacked confidence in the Soviet regime. Young andmiddle-aged people, urban residents, and those with higher educationtended to be more supportive of democratic reform and more alienatedfrom the regime. The nationalities differed widely in supportfor democratic reform and confidence in the regime. In the partlydemocratized political system, Boris Yeltsin acquired a broadfollowing by appealing to the electorate and advocating radicalchange. A February 1991 poll showed that his support was greatestamong Russians who backed the Russian parliament and stronglyendorsed democratic reform and private enterprise. With suchbacking, Yeltsin won the June 1991 Russian presidential electionand then mobilized popular opposition to the August coup attempt.The coup's failure dealt a fatal blow to Communist rule, Gorbachev'sleadership, and the Soviet Union itself. 相似文献
11.
Boonlert Supadhiloke 《亚洲交流杂志》2015,25(2):135-161
In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias. 相似文献
12.
José María García-de-Madariaga José Antonio Navarro Moreno Agustín Olmo López 《Journalism Practice》2020,14(3):339-357
ABSTRACTThe use of strategies to enhance the media visibility of politicians intensifies above all at election time and their focus is chiefly television due to the fact that it still has the greatest power to sway voters. Thus, based on a content analysis of the evening news on Televisión Española (TVE) and 18 semi-structured in-depth interviews with professionals working at the Spanish public broadcaster, the airtime that politicians were given was established to assess whether it had fulfilled its obligation as regards independence and pluralism at two crucial moments for Spanish politics: the period prior to the election calls, the pre-campaign periods and the official campaigns before the general elections held on 20 December 2015 and 26 June 2016. Both were unique in their own way: on the one hand, the debut of new political parties with the potential to win a large number of seats in Parliament; and, on the other, despite the fact that in just six months the party in power had lost its absolute majority and there were still no visible signs of change at TVE, it is still worth examining the variations in news treatment prior to both elections. 相似文献
13.
Although many studies have investigated citizens' attitudes toward polls and the political consequences, there have been no studies examining the effects of social network site (SNS) users' opinion environments on their poll skepticism. Based on prior studies on poll skepticism, we examine the relationship between perceived SNS opinion environments, poll skepticism, perceived concerns over the negative influence of the polls, and voting intention in an upcoming election. Using the survey data of the 2012 South Korean General Election, this study found that if the published polls are against respondents' political position, their homophilous SNS opinion environments promote poll skepticism, and augmented poll skepticism leads to concerns over the negative influence of the polls on other voters, which in turn increases voting intention. 相似文献
14.
A mail survey of 129 contact persons for polling organizationrevealed that 62 per cent of the firms from which responseswere received do not go back before 1980. Many respondents werethemselves newcomers, who had found their way into polling viapolitics and showed less commitment to the professional ethosthat meant so much to the pioneer pollsters. Newcomers, on theaverage, had fewer academic credentials and less training thaneither of two generations of more seasoned pollsters; more ofthem worked directly for politicians. The three generationsalso differed in the satisfactions sought from polling and onprofessional membership. Are we encountering a "new breed" ofpollsters? 相似文献
15.
Agnes E. M. Jonker 《Archival Science》2005,5(2-4):203-218
A new appraisal method for national government records introduced in the 1990s aimed at reducing backlogs in the transfer
of pre-1976 records to the National Archives of the Netherlands. Since then, appraisal and disposition decisions are based
on macro analysis. Preventing new backlogs from occurring was a second goal. The socalled project PIVOT (1991–2001 and after)
coordinated the introduction, development, and implementation of the new appraisal method. This article describes the objectives,
method, and appraisal criteria, as well as the criticism and laborious progress of this ongoing story.
This article is a revised and enlarged version of an earlier publication, “Makrohindamine Hollandis. Eskimesed kümme aanstat:
1991–2001”, TUNA Ajalookultuuri ajakiri
4 (2003): 150–154. 相似文献
16.
Shapiro Robert Y.; Young John T.; Patterson Kelly D.; Blumenfeld Jill E.; Cifu Douglas A.; Offenhartz Sara M.; Tsekerides Ted E. 《Int. Journal of Public Opinion Research》1991,3(4):340-365
In this article the authors argue that studies of the influenceof the mass media on public support for presidential candidatesin primary elections should return to the social pyschologicalmodel of attitude change. This model should take into account,however, that in the real world, unlike laboratory settings,randomization and complete controls of variables are not possible,and rational and strategic choice considerations come into play,along with the cumulative effects of new information on aggregateopinion. The variables found to be relevant to attitude change,especially the characteristics of the communicator and the communication,have not been studied systematically in natural settings. Littleis known about how new information unrelated to electoral ‘momentum’affects the public's evaluations and support for candidates.A fuller explanation is needed of what are complex media influenceson candidate support in primary elections—including especiallythose messages conveyed through the media which tend to be distinctiveand most accessible to memory: information about the viabiltiyof candidates; positive messages and images conveyed directlyfrom the candidates themselves and (to a lesser extent) fromother major party leaders who support or oppose them; and, ofspecial theoretical importance, the ostensibly credible newscommentary about the candidates. 相似文献
17.
This study examined two levels of media agenda effects on aggregatepublic opinion from different news sources. The effects wereinvestigated immediately and cumulatively. Content analysisdata from the 2000 U.S. presidential election coverage by fournational news organizations were related to the Gallup pre-electionpoll standings of each candidate. Regression analyses foundthat both the salience of a candidate and the salience of theattributes of a candidate cumulatively, but not immediately,influenced his standing in the polls. An analysis of news sourcessupported the finding that the two levels of agenda-settingeffects seemed mostly cumulative rather than immediate. Newsfrom different sources, however, tended to have effects of differentdegrees and sometimes different directions on candidate pollstandings. Cumulative effects of candidate salience on aggregateopinion change were found for non-partisan and neutral newssources—reporters, poll reporting and public documents—whereasthe effects of candidate attribute salience mostly came frompartisan sources—the candidate himself and members ofthe competing political party. Possible political implicationsof these findings are discussed. 相似文献
18.
Over the last few years, questions in the Australian polls aboutthe rate of immigration and the rate of Asian immigration havegenerated a remarkably wide range of response. While most ofthe polls conducted since 1984 suggest majority opposition tothe rate at which immigrants, including Asian immigrants, havebeen coming to Australia, other polls suggest majority support.Differences between the 1984 poll figures and some of the morerecent polls may reflect changes over time. Other polled differencesalmost certainly reflect differences in the way the questionswere worded. However, the most remarkable if least obvious causeof the difference seems to be the contexts in which the questionswere asked; more precisely, differences in the length and focusof the various questionnaires in which questions on immigrationwere embedded. Public opinion on the rate of immigration isnot only ‘soft’, it is created in the very attemptto measure it. Under these circumstances there is little pointin trying to isolate ‘majority opinion’ or in attemptingto establish which of the polls provides the most accurate reading.Where different readings are a product of differing contextsthey may be best understood in terms of competing conceptionsof what ‘public opinion’ itself is all about. 相似文献
19.
Jason Turcotte Klarize Medenilla Karen Villaseñor Saara Lampwalla 《Communication Research Reports》2017,34(3):191-200
As U.S. news outlets grapple with the challenges of delivering news in a digital era, journalists cover elections with tighter deadlines and fewer resources. Consequently, we are seeing an explosion in coverage of polls, which require little original reporting and attract readers through their “horse race” appeal. As the number of polls increases, news professionals are culling data from a wider spectrum of sources that vary in methodology and credibility. What remains unclear is how effective the news media are in providing polling context in their online coverage that is less limited by the space and time constraints of more traditional mediums. Utilizing the 2016 U.S. primaries, this exploratory study examines online news articles focused on polls to evaluate the quality of digital coverage across national news outlets.
Keywords: Campaigns and Elections; Content Analysis; Journalism; News Media; Political Communication 相似文献
20.
A. Bruce Strauch 《Publishing Research Quarterly》1994,10(1):66-72
The U.S. Supreme Court’s 1991 decision in the Feist case wiped away the idea that “sweat of the brow” is adequate for a copyright
claim. The history of the relevant issues is discussed and the Court’s decision is examined. The decision has a number of
implications for publishers but leaves many questions unanswered. 相似文献