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政治仪式中的媒介权力--大众传媒对美国总统竞选的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
大众传媒与美国总统选举密不可分.美国的总统竞选运动成为一种媒体策划下的"仪式"和"表演".大众传媒对美国总统选举的影响表现为关于竞选过程的消息大部分来自媒体;在形成选民对候选人的印象上有着巨大影响力;媒体新闻报道的方式有助于确定公众认为重要的政治问题,从而影响公众对候选人的选择;媒体在投票日开展的离场民意测验对选民行为有一定影响.由于媒体在总统竞选中扮演的角色超越了它本来的功能,给竞选带来种种负面效应. 相似文献
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小布什早选帮手 8月4日,在费城的共和党全国代表大会上,美国共和党总统候选人小乔治布什“自豪地接受”总统竞选人提名。 自从宣布竞选总统以来,小布什就一直被人看好,在各种民意测验中,他一直居于领先地位。他后劲逼人,使得总统“竞选宿将”麦凯恩黯然退出竞选。 7月25日,势头正劲的小布什更是早早提出了他的副总统人选——曾叱咤美国政坛的前国防部长切尼。 切尼现年59岁,曾是美国政坛的风云人物。他担任过福特政府白宫办公厅主任,并且是众议院情报委员会重要成 相似文献
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如今的美国人几乎每天都能在广播,电视、报纸上听到和看到各种民意测验,内容涉及到日常生活中人们最关心或最具争议性的问题,诸如总统竞选、医疗改革、种族问题、就业、退休福利。少年犯罪教育等等,这些民意测验结果本身已成为新闻的一部份。 自1936年盖洛普、克罗斯利和罗珀民意测验公司成功地预测到罗斯福将击败兰登在大选中获胜以来,美国的民意测验发展极为迅速,政府机构纷纷开设了民意测验研究所,有名的大专院校建立了民意测验中心,私人民意测验公司的出现更是不计其数。据统计,如今,五花八门的民意测验每年有成千上万,投入的资金以百亿计。私人机构所作的民意测验占绝大多数。 相似文献
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1月20日，美国新一任总统布什宣布就职。根据盖洛普民意测验，作为一个连任总统，布什在政绩方面得到的肯定在历届连任总统中是最低的。但是，对于自己第一任期的国内外政策，布什总统并不打算作检讨，他的内阁成员在第二任期开始时，在各种场合向美国人民传达了一个明确的信息，布什政府没有犯错误，对以前所采取的政策没有任何遗憾。相反，布什把自己的竞选胜利看作是选民对其政策的认可， 相似文献
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四年一度的美国总统选举总是给政界风云人物带来新希望。1988年又是美国的总统选举之年,早在1987年初,角逐民主党和共和党总统候选人的竞争就已紧锣密鼓地开始了。在1984年的总统竞选中,加里·哈特几乎当选为民主党总统候选人,但最终仍名落孙山,枉费了几多心血,还背上了130万美元的沉重债务。经过两年多的反思和准备,哈特又踌躇满志地力图东山再起。1987年4月13日,他正式宣布参加角逐民主党总统候选人。这一次他似乎时来运转了,4月底进行的民意测验表明,在战略上具有关键意义的衣阿华州,他得 相似文献
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近十年来,美国民意测验又有了新的进展。1968年,各级公职候选人进行民意测验为1200多次,花费约600万美元,而在1980年竞选中,民意测验多达2000次,费用开支近2000万美元。私人委托的民意测验越来越多,大众传播媒介主持的公开发表的民意测验也日益广泛。此外,民意测验方法和技术也有所创新。结论很清楚:舆论调查在美国政治过程中发挥着重要作用。 相似文献
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经过21个月的艰苦奋战,民主党候选人奥巴马终于完成了“不大可能达成的任务”,以压倒性优势战胜共和党总统候选人麦凯恩,成为美国历史上的第一位黑人总统．奥巴马的成功秘诀在于他及其竞选团队熟练地运用互联网而开展的政治营销。“电视总统”肯尼迪是第一位用电视直播方式进行政策阐释和新闻发布的总统, 相似文献
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4年一次的美国总统选举年初已拉开帷幕。虽然总统选举大体上要包括组织竞选班子、确定竞选方针、筹措竞选资金和安排新闻宣传活动这4大内容,但直接影响选民投票的主要是新闻活动。因此,美国不少政治学者与新闻学者说,美国总统的竞选,其实就是竞选人之间的新闻宣传战。在竞选总统的新闻宣传战中,影响面最大、最迅速、最直观的是电视上的画面和声音。为了使电视新闻 相似文献
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Boonlert Supadhiloke 《亚洲交流杂志》2015,25(2):135-161
In response to the widely publicized failure of most pollsters to predict the winner of the Bangkok governor election on 3 March 2013, this study examined the published results of opinion polls in the news media to see how they had affected the voter preference and what errors existed. The study analyzed a series of poll results by five major pollsters for the pre-election and exit polls during the governor election campaign from January to March 2013 and, then, compared them with the final results of governor election. The poll results lent partial support to the spiral of silence theory. Among all pollsters, only NIDA Poll projected the right prediction for Democrat candidate M. R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra as the winner. Its pre-election polls showed his final victory occurring in the last leg of the election campaign as a result of the late swing voters against the ruling Pheu Thai Party attaining monopoly on power. Suan Dusit and Abac Polls showed the existence of the bandwagon effect for Pheu Thai candidate Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Besides their polling effects, major factors accounting for errors included shy Democrat factor, late swing of voters, sampling error, and nonresponse bias. 相似文献
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《Communication monographs》2012,79(4):335-350
Televised debates are now an expected component of the American presidential election campaign. A meta-analysis was used to cumulate the research on the effects of watching presidential debates. General campaign debates increase issue knowledge and issue salience (the number of issues a voter uses to evaluate candidates) and can change preference for candidates' issue stands. Debates can have an agenda-setting effect. Debates can alter perceptions of the candidates' personality, but they do not exert a significant effect on perceptions of the candidates' competence (leadership ability). Debates can affect vote preference. Primary debates increase issue knowledge, influence perceptions of candidates' character, and can alter voter preferences (the effect sizes for these variables are larger in primary than general debates). The effect sizes for the dependent variables with significant effects were heterogeneous (except for effects of debates other than the first on vote preference). No support was found for several possible moderator variables on issue knowledge, character perceptions, candidate competence, and vote preference: nature of subject pool (students, nonstudents), study design (pretest/posttest, viewers/nonviewers), number of days between debate and election, or data collection method (public opinion poll or experimenter data). The first debate in a series had a larger effect on vote preference than other debates, but was not a moderator for other dependent variables. The possibility that other moderator variables are at work cannot be rejected. 相似文献
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Do presidential candidates adapt their spot messages to the public's interests? This study conducts a computer content analysis of the texts of presidential television spots from 1952–2000. Public opinion poll data on the most important issues for voters, in each campaign, are used to structure the searches. The extent to which candidate spot messages conform to the public issue agenda is determined. Democrats’ and challengers’ spot messages are significantly more aligned with the public policy priorities than Republicans or incumbents. There is no significant difference between the correlations for winners versus losers. Finally, in 5 of the 13 elections there is a significant relationship between the issues covered by the two candidates. Clearly, some candidates are better at adapting their television messages to voters and in some elections the candidates tend to discuss the same policy issues. 相似文献
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By studying candidates’ Facebook fan pages and rolling poll data during the Hong Kong Legislative Council election in 2016, this article aims at examining the relationships between candidates’ campaign performance on social media, electoral momentum, and vote shares. We contend that, under specific contextual conditions, social media campaigns could affect candidates’ momentum during the election period, which can in turn affect vote shares. We also examine how the relationships between social media performance and electoral momentum vary according to the candidates’ background characteristics, including age, political affiliation, incumbency status, and scale of the campaign of the political group to which the candidates belong. The results show that candidates’ social media performance can indeed predict vote shares indirectly via the mediation of electoral momentum. The predictive power of social media performance is stronger for pro-democracy candidates, incumbents, and candidates belonging to political groups with larger election campaigns. 相似文献
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Although many studies have investigated citizens' attitudes toward polls and the political consequences, there have been no studies examining the effects of social network site (SNS) users' opinion environments on their poll skepticism. Based on prior studies on poll skepticism, we examine the relationship between perceived SNS opinion environments, poll skepticism, perceived concerns over the negative influence of the polls, and voting intention in an upcoming election. Using the survey data of the 2012 South Korean General Election, this study found that if the published polls are against respondents' political position, their homophilous SNS opinion environments promote poll skepticism, and augmented poll skepticism leads to concerns over the negative influence of the polls on other voters, which in turn increases voting intention. 相似文献
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This paper combines the persuasion knowledge model (PKM) and priming theory to investigate the effects of different appeal types in negative political ads on voters' cognitive responses and candidate responses, and explore the moderating effect of an important candidate-related variable: poll ranking. The results indicate that negative advertising based on rational appeals is more beneficial to candidates who lag in the polls. However, negative ads based on emotional appeals generate better responses from voters when used by poll leaders. These effects are observed regardless of whether the race is between an incumbent and a challenger or two challengers. 相似文献
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《College & Undergraduate Libraries》2013,20(1-2):139-152
Abstract The Texas A&M University Libraries undertook a collaborative project with the local American Advertising Federation (AAF) undergraduate student chapter to develop a marketing campaign to advertise the availability of 30,000 netLibrary electronic books. The promotional campaign resulted in the creation of approximately 200 new user accounts and 3,800 e-book circulations within the first two weeks. The campaign of screensaver ads and posters that were developed are still in use for ongoing promotion of the netLibrary e-books. The AAF students benefited from having an ad campaign to include in their personal portfolios and the Libraries gained a creative and undergraduate student-focused advertising campaign. 相似文献
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The news media’s use of polls is by no means the special preserve of democracies. Using the case of Chinese government’s official medium (i.e. the People’s Daily), this study set out to assess how poll results are communicated to the public in China by examining the presentation of methodological information in its poll stories, and how its web counterpart, the People’s Daily Online website, differs in its coverage of polls from a technical point of view. It then examined the outlets’ interpretations of poll results and the media logic the coverage implies in comparison with the political logic that shapes poll reporting in China. Further critical discourse analysis reveals the use of authoritarian populist rhetoric as a discursive strategy in both outlets’ representation of public opinion. Compared with the print outlet, the online outlet showed a more marked inclination to describe a certain class as ‘the people’ in anti-elite rhetoric. 相似文献
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Based on interviews with political party officials and journalistsas well as a content analysis of election poll stories, thispaper discusses opinion polling in Ghana's emerging democracy.Highlighted in the discussion are the relevance of surveyingpublic opinion in a neo-democracy and the journalistic reportingof poll results. The paper describes the surveying of publicopinion in a political climate in transition from long historicalexperience of authoritarianism and dictatorship including aperiod of a ‘culture of silence’, to freedom ofexpression, as a challenge. In an examination of local ‘polls’conducted by newspapers during the 1996 presidential and parliamentaryelections, it characterizes those exercises as unscientificand inaccurate. Technical details about surveys were mostlymissing in the stories, suggesting lack of poll reporting knowledgeamong journalists as a major challenge. There is an attemptto address these challenges for the purpose of strengtheningthe enabling role of political polling and journalistic reportingof poll results in Ghana's new democracy. Adequate responsesto these challenges would, it is proposed, contribute to a scientificand an objective assessment of issues in political decision–makingincluding measuring voter support for political parties andcandidates. 相似文献
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This article examines the performance of the pre-election pollsin Portugal since 1991 and attempts to determine some of thecommon causes of poll inaccuracy in both National Assembly andEuropean Parliament elections. The analysis of poll resultsin this period reveals marked improvements in poll accuracysince 1991, which have brought it to levels that, today, arecomparable to those found in nations where the practice of bothsurvey research and opinion polling is longer and more established.No evidence of a systematic bias against any of the major partiesis found, and sources of error are congruent with those foundelsewhere. However, large errors remain the norm in polls pertainingto European Parliament elections, suggesting a shared inabilityof Portuguese polling organizations in dealing appropriatelywith the problems caused by low turnout and ‘landslide’elections. 相似文献