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采取数据级数推断与广义混合线性模型的统计方法,以2012—2019赛季中国足球超级联赛1 899场比赛的跑动指标和技术指标数值为自变量,以比赛结果为因变量,界定比赛致胜关键指标。结果：(1)各项跑动相关指标的增加对比赛获胜概率只带来微小无意义的影响;(2)在技术指标中,增加2个标准差的射正率可以为球队获胜概率带来31%的增量(99%置信区间：±4.4%),而增加2个标准差的个人控球时间、个人控球次数、进攻三区个人控球次数、个人控球平均触球次数、传球次数、传球成功率、向前场传球次数、向前场传球成功率和传中次数分别会降低20%(±4.2%)、25.3%(±4.2%)、25.6%(±4.3%)、17.3%(±4.1%)、25.2%(±4.2%)、19%(±4.2%)、25.8%(±4.3%)、19%(±4.2%)和32%(±4.2%)的比赛获胜概率,而增加一张红牌,会给球队获胜概率带来10.6%(±4.3%)的下降。 相似文献
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刘宇 《天津体育学院学报》2014,29(4):336-342
探究足球比赛中控球率不同时,对球员体能和技术表现的需要及影响,对球队制定训练计划有着积极的参考意义。数据的获得是借助多台
高速摄像机、计算机追踪系统。研究表明：在不同控球率的比赛中,体能类指标中的跑动总距离和高强度跑距离没有明显区别;高控球率球队有球
高强度跑动要高于低控球率31%,而低控球率球队无球高强度跑动距离则要超出高控球率22%;高控球率队球员传球次数比低控球率队多44%,这
种优势同样体现在成功传球次数、接球次数、触球次数、射门、运球和攻入对方最后1/3防守区域次数等;中后卫在低控球率时的高强度有球跑动距
离要少于高控球率33%,而边后卫、前锋和中场队员在低控球率时,高强度无球跑动要多于高控球率同位置的队员,有球高强度跑则要低于高控球
率同样位置的球员。技术指标数据统计结果表明,在采用高控球率打法时,场上所有位置球员传球和接球的总次数要明显高于低控球率的打法。
结果表明：控球率对球队的整体跑动没有明显的影响,但对高强度跑动数据和一些技术因素的运动表现有较明显的影响;球队控球率不同时,特定
位置球员的跑动和技术指标会产生明显的变化。 相似文献
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依据对第十九届世界杯参赛球队攻防技术与比赛成绩的统计,分析其对比赛成绩的影响。研究结果表明：影响比赛成绩优劣的进攻技术指标依次是助攻、进球、射正次数、射正率、传球成功率、控球率、成功传入前场30m、角球、成功传入禁区、任意球射门、传中、点球、越位、界外球;影响比赛成绩优劣的防守技术指标依次是铲球、失球率、预判拦截、红牌、犯规、黄牌、阻截、解围。此外,各名次段的球队间、各洲球队间在攻防的多项技术指标上存在着一定的差异性。 相似文献
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运用文献资料调研、观察及数理统计等方法,对第19届世界杯足球赛决赛阶段进球进行统计分析。统计结果表明,第19届足球世界杯场均进球仅为2.27个,仅高于1990年世界杯。随着现代足球攻防逐渐平衡,世界杯进球数量显现减少的趋势。在不同比赛阶段,上、下半场的射门次数具有显著性差异;在进球球权转换中,后场、中场、前场的球权转换不具有显著性差异,但通过定位球(任意球、掷界外球、角球)的球权转换有显著性差异;进球数量随着比赛时间的推移而逐渐增多,随传球次数的增多而锐减;罚球区仍是进球的主要区域,前锋、前卫运动员进球数量占总数量的88%,进球前的传球方式多以传中、传脚下、直塞等为主,射门部位以脚背、脚内侧、头球、脚背内侧为主;比赛获胜球队与失败球队的控球率存在显著性差异,控球率占优球队获胜的概率更大。 相似文献
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采用文献资料法和数理统计法,对第14届欧洲足球锦标赛8强球队比赛15项指标与比赛结果的相关性进行分析,结果显示：对比赛结果影响较大的指标为：进球、失球、射门、射正、越位、传球、突破、任意球、控球率等9项指标;对西班牙队与其他各队9项指标进行多重比较发现：进球、失球、射正、传球、控球率等5项指标是西班牙队夺冠的优势指标。 相似文献
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运用文献资料法、录像观察法、Q型聚类分析法、数理统计法,对参加亚洲足球俱乐部联赛(以下简称:亚冠联赛)的32支队伍、126场比赛的进攻情况进行分析,结果显示:各球队之间在传球成功率、突破成功率、射门次数等9项指标上存在显著性差异,其中射门次数、射正次数、传中数、关键传球、角球次数5项指标存在非常显著性差异.可见运用Q型聚类分析对球队的各项进攻指标进行量化评价具有较高的可靠性,能够客观地反映出各球队的进攻能力,同时,揭示现代足球进攻的发展趋势,并探索出一种比较合理有效的量化评价球队进攻能力的方法. 相似文献
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动态过程方法是在大量战术记录的基础上,按照时间顺序和行为,分析比赛中团队的行为及行为产生的环境,建立技、战术模型。根据比赛行动的目的以评估比赛行为发生的概率,探索导致成功的顺序行为模式。采用录像分析、动态研究、数理统计等方法对2010年亚运会手球比赛决赛阶段的7场比赛84名运动员的比赛进攻表现进行研究。研究结果表明:手球比赛进攻程序由获得球、处理球和进攻完成3个环节构成。获得球的技术应用有3%在强防守环境下,9%在中等防守环境,87%是在弱防守环境下;处理球技术在防守强、中、弱的环境下分别应用的比例为2%、12%、82%;在进攻完成环节,在强、中、弱3种防守环境下射门得分的比率分别为10%、28%、49%。手球比赛的组织效率系数为0.11,双方创造机会能力系数为0.09,比赛进攻威胁性指标的系数为0.88,得分系数为0.48。手球比赛的得分路径由接控球与控制性传球、组织性传球、助攻性传球形成。射门机会路径由接控球与传球的3个指标、运球形成传球与射门组成。进攻完成环节的技术指标对比赛失利的预测率较高,而处理球环节的技术对比赛获胜的预测率较高。 相似文献
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以中国女子足球国家队为研究对象,选取2010年至2011年共计15场正式比赛,对比赛相关技术指标的统计以及各技术指标与比赛结果的相关性分析表明:控球率、射门次数、射门成功率、进球四项技术指标与获得比赛胜利的相关性较高,而传球次数、定位球、犯规与越位等技术指标与获得比赛胜利的相关性较低. 相似文献
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Abstract In research on the importance of the possession of the ball in soccer, little attention has been paid to its determinants. Using data from 170 matches of the 2003 – 2004 Spanish Soccer League, we explain why differences in the possession of the ball among teams are so great. In particular, four variables are examined: evolving match status (i.e. whether the team is winning, losing or drawing), venue (i.e. playing at home or away), and the identities of the team and the opponent in each match. Results of linear regression analysis show that these four variables are statistically significant and together explain most of the variance in possession. In short, home teams have more possession than away teams, teams have more possession when they are losing matches than when winning or drawing, and the identity of the opponent matters – the worse the opponent, the greater the possession of the ball. Combinations of these variables could be used to develop a model that predicts possession in soccer. 相似文献
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Determinants of possession of the ball in soccer 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In research on the importance of the possession of the ball in soccer, little attention has been paid to its determinants. Using data from 170 matches of the 2003 - 2004 Spanish Soccer League, we explain why differences in the possession of the ball among teams are so great. In particular, four variables are examined: evolving match status (i.e. whether the team is winning, losing or drawing), venue (i.e. playing at home or away), and the identities of the team and the opponent in each match. Results of linear regression analysis show that these four variables are statistically significant and together explain most of the variance in possession. In short, home teams have more possession than away teams, teams have more possession when they are losing matches than when winning or drawing, and the identity of the opponent matters - the worse the opponent, the greater the possession of the ball. Combinations of these variables could be used to develop a model that predicts possession in soccer. 相似文献
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《European Journal of Sport Science》2013,13(7):573-582
AbstractSquad management, injury and physical, tactical and technical match performance were investigated in a professional soccer team across five consecutive league seasons (2008–2013, 190 league games) with specific focus on a championship-winning season (2010/11). For each player, match participation and time-loss injuries were recorded, the latter prospectively diagnosed by the team's physician. Defending and attacking tactical and technical performance indicators investigated included ball possession and possession in opponents' half, passes, forward passes, completed passes and forward passes, crosses and completed crosses, goal attempts and goal attempts on target, successful final third entries, free-kicks and 50/50 duels won/lost. Physical performance measures included total distance and distance covered at high-speeds (≥19.1 km/h). Results showed that during the 2010/11 season, squad utilisation was lowest potentially owing to the observed lower match injury occurrence and working days lost to injury thereby increasing player availability. In 2010/11, the team won both its highest number of points and conceded its lowest number of goals especially over the second half of this season. The team also won its highest number of games directly via a goal from a substitute and scored and conceded a goal first on the highest and lowest number of occasions, respectively. While multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) detected a significant difference in some attacking and defensive performance indicators across the five seasons, these were generally not distinguishing factors in 2010/11. Similarly, univariate ANOVAs showed a significant difference in running distances covered across seasons, but the trend was for less activity in 2010/11. 相似文献
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B. Gonçalves R. Marcelino L. Torres-Ronda C. Torrents J. Sampaio 《Journal of sports sciences》2016,34(14):1346-1354
ABSTRACTOptimizing collective behaviour helps to increase performance in mutual tasks. In team sports settings, the small-sided games (SSG) have been used as key context tools to stress out the players’ awareness about their in-game required behaviours. Research has mostly described these behaviours when confronting teams have the same number of players, disregarding the frequent situations of low and high inequality. This study compared the players’ positioning dynamics when manipulating the number of opponents and teammates during professional and amateur football SSG. The participants played 4v3, 4v5 and 4v7 games, where one team was confronted with low-superiority, low- and high-inferiority situations, and their opponents with low-, medium- and high-cooperation situations. Positional data were used to calculate effective playing space and distances from each player to team centroid, opponent team centroid and nearest opponent. Outcomes suggested that increasing the number of opponents in professional teams resulted in moderate/large decrease in approximate entropy (ApEn) values to both distance to team and opponent team centroid (i.e., the variables present higher regularity/predictability pattern). In low-cooperation game scenarios, the ApEn in amateurs’ tactical variables presented a moderate/large increase. The professional teams presented an increase in the distance to nearest opponent with the increase of the cooperation level. Increasing the number of opponents was effective to overemphasise the need to use local information in the positioning decision-making process from professionals. Conversely, amateur still rely on external informational feedback. Increasing the cooperation promoted more regularity in spatial organisation in amateurs and emphasise their players’ local perceptions. 相似文献
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耿亮 《天津体育学院学报》2008,23(2):148-151
根据第5届世界女子足球锦标赛决赛阶段32场比赛的统计,结果表明个人防守行为按实施次数的多少排列依次为断球、抢球、争顶、铲球、封堵,局部防守战术主要实施的是夹击和围抢,夹击实施的次数比围抢多.比赛采用的防守战术结构模式是:局部夹击、小范围围抢、封堵抢截、中前场紧逼防正面进攻、后场防阵地、边路断球、紧逼防快速反击和定位球防守. 相似文献
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Christopher Carling Paul Bradley Alan McCall Gregory Dupont 《Journal of sports sciences》2016,34(24):2215-2223
ABSTRACTThis study investigated variability in competitive high-speed running performance in an elite soccer team. A semi-automated tracking system quantified running performance in 12 players over a season (median 17 matches per player, 207 observations). Variability [coefficient of variation (CV)] was compared for total sprint distance (TSD, >25.2 km/h), high-speed running (HSR, 19.8–25.2 km/h), total high-speed running (THSR, ≥19.8 km/h); THSR when the team was in and out of ball possession, in individual ball possession, in the peak 5 min activity period; and distance run according to individual maximal aerobic speed (MAS). Variability for % declines in THSR and distance covered at ≥80% MAS across halves, at the end of play (final 15 min vs. mean for all 15 min periods) and transiently (5 min period following peak 5 min activity period), was analysed. Collectively, variability was higher for TSD versus HSR and THSR and lowest for distance run at ≥80% MAS (CVs: 37.1%, 18.1%, 19.8% and 11.8%). THSR CVs when the team was in/out of ball possession, in individual ball possession and during the peak 5 min period were 31.5%, 26.1%, 60.1% and 23.9%. Variability in THSR declines across halves, at the end of play and transiently, ranged from 37.1% to 142.6%, while lower CVs were observed in these metrics for running at ≥80% MAS (20.9–53.3%).These results cast doubt on the appropriateness of general measures of high-speed activity for determining variability in an elite soccer team, although individualisation of HSR thresholds according to fitness characteristics might provide more stable indicators of running performance and fatigue occurrence. 相似文献
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目的探究赛会制规则下中超联赛参赛球队攻防综合实力,并对队伍实力分布进行合理的档位划分,为评价赛会制下中超球队技战术水平提供参考。方法采用文献资料法、TOPSIS法、秩和比法和数理统计法对2020赛季中超联赛参赛队伍攻防技术指标表现进行分析。结果1)在进攻方面北京国安、广州恒大的进攻>0.6978,进攻实力较强。在防守方面上海上港、江苏苏宁的防守>0.6121,防守实力较强。2)在进攻指标上,进球数、控球率、关键传球、禁区内进球4项指标在不同档次球队间存在显著性差异(p<0.05)。在防守指标上,抢断、失球2项指标在不同档次球队间存在显著性差异(p<0.05)。3)根据攻防RSR值可将16支球队分为5个档次。江苏苏宁、广州恒大、北京国安、上海上港攻防RSR>0.7273,属于A档球队;天津泰达、青岛黄海攻防RSR<0.2906,属于E档球队。结论中超联赛强队与弱队在进攻指标上具有显著性差异,在部分防守指标上差异不明显。特殊赛制对本赛季中超参赛队伍排名产生一定影响。 相似文献
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Qing Yi Miguel A. Gómez Lei Wang Guohu Huang Hengliang Zhang 《Journal of sports sciences》2013,31(22):2569-2577
ABSTRACTIn order to investigate the effect of playing styles on the match performance of football teams, data were analysed on 18 technical performance-related variables and 8 physical performance-related variables from 59 matches in the 2018 FIFA World Cup. A k-means cluster analysis was conducted to classify all match observations into two clusters of tactical approach in order to identify the playing styles of teams (characterised as direct-play, possession-play and mixed-play). Separate Poisson regression models were run in the generalised mixed linear modelling to examine the differences in technical and physical performance between teams classified as using different playing styles when facing different opponents. Results showed that possession-play characterised teams achieved higher values in all the variables related to goal scoring, attacking and passing (ES: 0.32 ~ 1.27) and covered more distance in sprints and high-intensity running (ES: 0.33 ~ 0.47) than direct-play characterised teams. Both possession- and direct-play characterised teams achieved higher values in passing, pass accuracy and delivery into the attacking third playing against direct-play characterised teams than playing against possession-play characterised sides (ES: 0.22 ~ 0.98). These findings may provide insights into the establishment of performance profiles of teams with different tactical styles and the development of specific training drills to optimise playing style. 相似文献
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Abstract The aim of this study was to analyse the influence of playing tactics, opponent interaction and situational variables on achieving score-box possessions in professional soccer. The sample was constituted by 908 possessions obtained by a team from the Spanish soccer league in 12 matches played during the 2009–2010 season. Multidimensional qualitative data obtained from 12 ordered categorical variables were used. Sampled matches were registered by the AMISCO PRO® system. Data were analysed using chi-square analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis. Of 908 possessions, 303 (33.4%) produced score-box possessions, 477 (52.5%) achieved progression and 128 (14.1%) failed to reach any sort of progression. Multiple logistic regression showed that, for the main variable “team possession type”, direct attacks and counterattacks were three times more effective than elaborate attacks for producing a score-box possession (P < 0.05). Team possession originating from the middle zones and playing against less than six defending players (P < 0.001) registered a higher success than those started in the defensive zone with a balanced defence. When the team was drawing or winning, the probability of reaching the score-box decreased by 43 and 53 percent, respectively, compared with the losing situation (P < 0.05). Accounting for opponent interactions and situational variables is critical to evaluate the effectiveness of offensive playing tactics on producing score-box possessions. 相似文献